基于保护生态服务价值的县域城市扩展情景分析——以浙江省安吉县为例
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中国人民大学中央高校建设世界一流大学(学科)和特色发展引导专项资金项目


Scenario analysis of county expansion based on the value of ecological services: Taking Anji County in Zhejiang Province as an example
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Supported by fund for building world-class universities (disciplines) of Renmin University of China

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    摘要:

    县域城市的可持续发展是推动生态文明建设、实现特色新型城镇化战略目标的重要基础,以保护生态服务价值为目标的县域城市扩展研究具有重要理论和现实意义。运用SLEUTH模型,以两山理论发源地安吉县为例,并与毗邻的广德市进行对比,预置了两县市现有发展模式和生态保护模式两种不同的发展情景,并基于生态服务价值进一步将生态保护情景分为保护调节服务、供给服务、支持服务和娱乐服务4种情景。对不同情景下的2030年建设用地扩展进行模拟和对比分析,以探究生态保护情景下的建设用地扩展对县域经济的影响。结果显示:(1)现有发展模式下,两县市仍围绕当前建设用地向周围蔓延,在明显的外延式增长下还伴随着内部填充,集中扩张区均围绕县城及各镇政府所在地并呈现集中连片趋势,这种模式势必对生态环境产生负面影响;(2)生态保护情景下,两县市均在一定程度上抑制了建设用地的扩张,安吉县扩张面积最低减少1.43%,广德市扩张面积最低减少7.57%。(3)相比于现有发展模式,两县市对林地的占用量显著降低,安吉县对林地的占用减少了1.79km2,广德市减少了2.44km2;(4)安吉县相较广德市的建设用地扩展更多依赖耕地转换,因安吉县最先走生态保护道路,故生态保护情景对建设用地扩展的影响已明显小于广德市。

    Abstract:

    County cities' sustainable development is one of the most important foundations to both the promotion of ecological civilization and the realization of the strategic goal of new urbanization. Researches on urban expansions aimed to the protection of the values of ecological service functions are also of paramount importance to theoretical and practical domain. The birthplace of "Two Mountains Theory" of Anji County in Zhejiang province had been taken as the study area and its adjacent city of Guangde was chosen as a contrast. Two different development scenarios were set based on the SLEUTH model, one was the continuing of the current development mode and the other was largely considered the protection of ecological service functions. Four ecological service functions were further distinguished based on their ecological values which were regulation service, supply service, support service, and entertainment service. Expansion of construction land in the year of 2030 was simulated under the two different scenarios. Then a detailed comparative analysis was conducted to reveal the differential impacts on county economy in Anji County and Guangde City based on spatial statistics. The results show that:(1) under the scenario of continuing the current development mode, both counties were sprawl around the existed construction land. Outwards spreading were dominant and accompanied by small inner fillings. Main and large expansion areas were those that around the county towns and shown a tendency of contiguous. Such patterns might have some negative impacts on ecological environment; (2) under the protection scenarios of ecological service functions, expansion of construction land in both counties were restrained to some extent. The lowest expansion area of Anji County would be decreased at least by 1.43% and by 7.57% in Guangde City; (3) Compared with the current development scenario, the amount of forestland occupied by construction land in both counties were decreased significantly. It was decreased by 1.79km2in Anji County and by 2.44km2 in Guangde City respectively; (4) Compared with the city of Guangde, the expansion of construction land in Anji County was more relied on the conversion of farmland. Since Anji County is the first one to take ecological protection road and has already adjusted its development mode, the impacts of construction land expansion on ecosystem services and county economy were smaller than that in Guangde City.

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李海萍,王语萌,杜佳琪.基于保护生态服务价值的县域城市扩展情景分析——以浙江省安吉县为例.生态学报,2022,42(19):7858~7870

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