Abstract:Monitoring and analyzing the spatio-temporal patterns changes is of great significance for understanding the dynamic evolution and integrated management of forest biological disasters. Based on the open statistical data of forest pest disaster area and forest cover area at national and provincial scale from 1998 to 2019, two series of indicators, the Forest Pest Outbreak Index (FPOI) and the Forest Pest Occurrence Area Rate (FPOAR), were calculated and derived. The spatial and temporal differentiation characteristics of forest biological disasters in China were revealed by the indicators data analysis with various methods. Sen's Slope Estimator and Mann Kendall test, Mann Kendall mutation test, sliding T test, coefficient of variation, and Hurst exponent were adopted separately in analyzing the trend, sudden changes and stability of occurred disasters. The results are as follows:(1) Both of FPOI and FPOAR indicators are suitable for different scales analysis of forest biological disasters. With the clearly differentiation of the consistent spatio-temporal data of the two indicators, the characteristics of forest biological disasters could be analyzed and quantitative visualized. However, there might be partially different between the results by the two indicators. (2) Regarding the characteristics of historical trend, the FPOI indicator with more weight on severe and moderate disasters showed downward trend at the national scale, while the FPOAR indicator was an upward trend. At the provincial scale, both indicators disclosed that forest biological disasters in Xinjiang, Tibet, Tianjin and a few other provinces were on the rise. However, more provinces in most regions of North, Northeast, East, and Northwest China showed a downward trend. (3) In terms of mutation characteristics, at the national scale, the trend mutation occurred only in 2001, and there was no mutation in other years. At the provincial scale, most regions did not show abrupt changes, and a few provinces showed one trend changes in the same years. (4) According to the stability characteristics of forest biological hazards, forest pest disasters showed stable in most provinces across the country. The performance of 5 provinces included Hainan, Qinghai, Zhejiang, Chongqing, Shanghai were unstable by the FPOAR indicator, the unstable provinces numbers expanded to 11 by the FPOI indicator, 6 more provinces included Gansu, Tibet, Shanxi, Henan, Jiangsu, Jilin provinces were joined. (5) For the characteristics of the future trend, forest pest disasters at the national scale and in regions at the provincial scale are consistent with historical trends, showing a continuous downward trend in most provinces. A few provinces, such as Xinjiang and Tibet, still show a continuous upward trend.