Abstract:Land-use change caused by social development significantly affects ecosystem services and carbon emissions. Exploring the spatio-temporal correlation between carbon emissions and ecosystem service value (ESV) can provide important theoretical and practical significance for promoting regional low-carbon and green development. To reveal the spatio-temporal relationship between carbon emissions and ESV under land-use change, this study took Nansi Lake Basin as the research object and adopted land transfer matrix and spatial autocorrelation methods based on land-use data of five periods from 2000 to 2018. Carbon sources, carbon sinks, net carbon emissions, carbon emission intensity, and ESV intensity were introduced as research variables. The spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and spatial correlation of ESV and carbon emissions were explored. The results showed that the changes of different land-use types in the basin occurred in different degrees during the 19 years, and changes of the cultivated land and construction land were the most significant. The ESV fluctuated with the transformation of land, but it increased on the whole, and the increase of water area was the decisive reason for its increase. The distribution of ESV intensity was "high in the east and low in the west, and remained unchanged in the lake area", which was related to land use patterns and influenced by natural and social factors. The carbon sink of the basin was much lower than the carbon source, and the net carbon emissions increased steadily, among which the carbon emissions of construction land played a leading role, so the construction land had great potential for carbon emission reduction. The maximum carbon emission intensity increased from 21.61 t/hm2 to 101.42 t/hm2, an increase of 4.69 times. Industrialization and urbanization were the driving factors of carbon emission intensity growth. There was a negatively spatial correlation between carbon emission intensity and ESV intensity. The local aggregation phenomenon was obvious, from high-low cluster to low-low cluster, which was related to land type area and carbon emission coefficient of construction land. The range and distribution of low-high cluster areas did not change much. In conclusion, the basin as a whole is facing the trend of the increasing ESV and carbon emissions. According to the spatial correlation between carbon emission intensity and ESV intensity, effective measures should be taken to prevent the negative impact of the rapid growth of carbon emission on the surrounding regional ecological environment, and to build a good ecological circulation system, so as to realize the low carbon economy of the basin.