基于要素视角的“一带一路”国家绿色发展效率的驱动力研究
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国家自然科学基金项目(42177460,U21A2041);广西创新驱动发展专项资金项目(桂科AA20161004-04);城市与区域生态国家重点实验室开放基金(SKLURE2022-2-2)


Driving forces of green development efficiency in the “Belt and Road” countries from factor perspective
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    摘要:

    绿色发展的内涵在于构建与资源消耗和污染排放脱钩的绿色经济增长模式,最终实现经济、社会与自然系统的共生与多元化发展。研究"一带一路"沿线国家的绿色发展效率及驱动机制对推动"绿色之路"建设具有重要的理论和实践意义。但目前学界在驱动机制方面未见对技术变化偏向性的探究,因而缺少从要素视角促进绿色技术进步、推动绿色发展的理论基础。以"一带一路"沿线37个国家为样本,以绿色全要素生产率为绿色发展的表征指标,采用数据包络分析方法测度1995至2019年间各国绿色发展趋势和技术变化特征,在此基础上探讨技术变化的要素偏向性对不同类型国家绿色发展的驱动特征。主要研究结论为:(1)多数国家的绿色发展水平呈上升趋势,绿色全要素生产率年均增长率为0.70%;(2)技术进步是沿线国家绿色发展的核心驱动因素,其中中性技术进步是主要动力,而偏向性技术变化却倾向于降低绿色发展效率;(3)基于绿色发展特征将沿线国家分为强、较强、较弱和弱四种类型。各类国家的绿色技术进步均以中性技术进步为驱动力量,而偏向性技术进步普遍呈能源密集型和生态环境恶化型特征。类型I中绿色发展快于GDP发展的国家,其偏向性技术在投入要素中偏向能源,而在产出要素中偏向期望产出,呈现能源密集型和生态环境友好型特征,说明其低碳政策已对技术进步产生了促进作用,而能源规制的激励作用仍有待于加强。基于研究结果,提出优化经济发展的宏观衡量指标,以节能低碳规制促进偏向性绿色技术进步是促进"一带一路"沿线国家绿色发展的关键路径。

    Abstract:

    Green development refers to the establishment of a green economic growth mode that is decoupled from resource consumption and pollution emissions, and gradually realizes the symbiosis and diversified development of economic, social, and natural systems. Studying the green development efficiency and its driving mechanism of countries along the "Belt and Road" has important theoretical and practical significance for promoting the construction of the Green Road. However, there is currently few research on the bias of technological change in terms of driving mechanism, so there is no theoretical basis for promoting green technology progress and green development from the perspective of factors. Taking 37 countries along the Belt and Road as samples, this paper measured the green development trend and technological change characteristics of those countries between 1995 and 2019 by using the data envelopment analysis method with green total factor productivity as a green development indicator. On this basis, we explored the driving characteristics of the factor bias of technological change on green development in different types of countries. The main findings are as follows. (1) The level of green development in most countries shows an upward trend, with an average annual growth rate of 0.7% in green total factor productivity. (2) The technological progress is the key driver of green development in countries along the route, with neutral technological progress being the main driver, while the biased technological change tends to reduce the efficiency of green development. (3) The driving characteristics of green development vary in different types of countries. The countries along the route are classified into four categories, including very strong, relatively strong, relatively weak, and very weak, according to their green development characteristics. Green technology and efficiency are progressive in Type I countries (very strong) and regressive in Type III countries (relatively weak); green technological progress is driven by neutral technological progress in all types of countries, while the biased technological progress is generally energy-intensive and ecologically degrading. The countries with faster green development than GDP development in Type I have the biased technologies that favor energy among input factors and desired output among output factors, showing energy-intensive and eco-friendly characteristics. It suggests that low-carbon policies in these countries have promoted technological progress, while the incentive effect of energy regulation still needs to be strengthened. Based on the findings of this paper, it is proposed that optimizing macro-measurement indicators of economic development, and promoting biased green technological progress with energy-saving and low-carbon regulations are the key paths to promote green development in countries along the "Belt and Road".

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张瑞,杨若宸,张倍函,马骅.基于要素视角的“一带一路”国家绿色发展效率的驱动力研究.生态学报,2023,43(13):5320~5335

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