National Key R&D Program of China；National Natural Science Foundation of China
面源污染是影响流域水环境和水安全的重要污染来源,对其进行有效防控需要对其负荷以及防控措施效果进行科学高效精准的预测。流域水文模型(Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN,HSPF)具有突出的综合性和灵活性,是面源污染模型的典范。近年来,HSPF模型应用于我国流域面源污染相关的研究和实践有了飞速发展,但同样也面临着模型机理和参数本地化、模型构建精细化、模型结构不确定性较大等方面的挑战。围绕该模型在面源污染模拟与管控中的研究进展,对其在变化环境下的模拟方法和成果,以及应对参数识别、不确定性分析、措施效果评估和总量控制的思路和方法等方面进行了总结,并分析了现代化环境模拟形势下HSPF模型的延伸发展。结合模型相关研究的总结,强调了面向我国流域特色的本地化模型改进、服务河长制精细监管的大尺度精细化模拟、以及模型与大数据统计及人工智能耦合的互馈集合模拟等后续研究是需要重点关注的发展动向。
Non-point source (NPS) pollution has become a major threat to watershed environment and security in recent decades. The occurrence and transport of NPS pollution include several dynamic processes which are characterized by randomness, complexity, uncertainty, etc. Existing monitoring network is not sufficient to accurately evaluate the contribution of NPS pollution and understand the underlying mechanisms. Efficient and sound assessment tools are needed to facilitate preventing and controlling NPS pollution. Nowadays many watershed models become increasingly popular to simulate, predict, and analyze NPS pollution processes and assist in decision makings for integrated watershed management. HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN) is one of the most comprehensive and flexible NPS models around the world. It has been developed and maintained mainly by the U.S. Environment Protection Agency and is highly recommended in flood-control planning and operations, water quality planning and management, conservation practices evaluation, etc. The HSPF model conceptualizes a watershed system into surface, soil, and stream segments to simulate the continuous, storm event, or steady-state behavior of both hydrologic and water quality processes in natural or manmade water systems. The model has proven its ability to be used with reasonable accuracy in diverse hydrologic regimes, which leads to its broad application worldwide. The research and practice of the HSPF model applied to watersheds in China have expanded rapidly in recent years, but the model is also facing challenges in terms of localization for model theory and parameters, refinement during the model setup process, and uncertainty embedded in the simulated results. Therefore, this paper focused on the research progress of the HSPF model in NPS pollution modeling and control by reviewing existing relative papers. The conceptualization principles of the HSPF model to simulate NPS pollution was first described. This was followed by extensive reviews of the modeling methods and application in changing environment, as well as the ideas and methods for parameter identification, uncertainty analysis, control measures evaluation and total emission control. The extended development of HSPF model under the modern environmental modeling situation was also summarized. PyHSPF and HSP2 as two representatives were specifically discussed in their improvement in compiling environment, data management, dynamic representation of watershed properties, parallel computing, and Application Program Interface. The suggested developments in future studies include: localization model improvement for China's watershed characteristics, large-scale refinement modeling to cope with the fine regulatory services of the river chief system, coupling with big data statistics and artificial intelligence for crossfeed ensemble modeling.