Abstract:Land use change will change the stable supply of regional ecosystem services, which poses threat to regionally ecological stability and sustainable development. Under the rapid urbanization in western China, the expanded demand for economic development has a significant impact on land use change. This paper took Zhangye City, an important node city of the Silk Road Economic Belt plan, as an example to simulate the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of land use change under multiple scenarios during 2010-2030 based on the model of Computable General Equilibrium of Land Use Change (CGELUC) and the model of Dynamics of Land System (DLS). We analyzed and predicted the changes of ecosystem service value (ESV) and their spatial and temporal characteristics in Zhangye City from 2010 to 2030 under multiple scenarios, and analyzed the trade-off and synergistic relationship among various kinds of ESV services in 2030, using the methods of ESV estimation and spatial autocorrelation analysis. The results showed that (1) the land use pattern changed significantly from 2010 to 2030, and the expansion of urban built-up area under the construction and development scenario was the most dramatic. The built-up area increased by 7.41% and the cultivated land area decreased by 11.05%; the urban expansion under the ecological protection scenario was the most moderate, while the unused land decreased significantly with an area of 1088 km2, and mainly converted to ecological land such as forest area, grassland, and water area. (2) From 2010 to 2030, the ESV of Zhangye City increased by 643 million yuan and 1.316 billion yuan, respectively, under baseline scenario and ecological protection scenario, while the overall increase was only 153 million yuan under the construction and development scenario. (3) The values of four individual ecosystem services, including supply, regulation, support, and culture all showed an upward trend under the baseline and ecological protection scenarios. Under the construction and development scenario, the value of three kinds of ecosystem services showed a slow growth trend, while the value of supply service always showed a downward trend. (4) Each kind of ecosystem service showed synergistic relationship obviously. The regions on the north and south sides of the southeast-northwest axis showed a synergistic relationship obviously. Only a few regions showed trade-off relationship, where the trade-off relationship between supply and cultural service was the most obvious. This paper provided a scientific solution for coordinating economic development and ecological protection in the rapidly urbanizing areas in western China.