In order to scientifically evaluate the sustainability of shrubs-herbs-arbor measures on the Loess Plateau, it is of practical significance to study the restoration potential of shrubs-herbs-arbor vegetation coverage based on the dynamic relationship between evapotranspiration (ET) and rainfall recharge of forest-grassland ecosystem. Based on the statistic of measured hydrometeorological elements and remote sensing products such as PML_V2 ET, GRACE and MOD13 A1 EVI, the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and ET were revealed. The quantitative response relationship between ET and EVI was established, and the restoration threshold and potential of shrubs-herbs-arbor vegetation coverage on the Loess Plateau were quantitatively estimated under different rainfall scenarios. The results show that:(1) the errors of PML products verified through the observed values of flux stations and water balance formula were 4.5 mm/8d and 34.3 mm/a, respectively, and the product accuracy was better than MOD16 A2 GF. The annual mean ET and EVI were 445.36 mm and 0.17 from 2000 to 2018 on the Loess Plateau. The growth rates of shrubs-herbs-arbor vegetation's ET and EVI were 5.08 mm/a and 0.0026/a. (2) The optimal response model of ET and meteorological elements and EVI was constructed by using multiple stepwise regression method, and the average of root mean square error (RMSE) was 44.5 mm. (3) The average restoration thresholds of shrubs-herbs-arbor vegetation coverage in wet, normal and dry years were (71.5±37.3)%, (55.6±35.9)%, and (22.4±26.0)%, while the average recovery potential were (9.4±30.4)%, (-6.4±23.8)% and (-39.7±26.2)%. The average RMSE was 5.7%. (4) There was spatial heterogeneity in the restoration potential of shrubs-herbs-arbor vegetation coverage. The effects of different historical rainfall conditions on the vegetation recovery potential of shrubs-herbs-arbor were the most dramatic in the interval of drought index from 2.5 to 4. If the Loess Plateau experiences a long period of normal or dry years in the future, the shrubs-herbs-arbor vegetation will have different degrees of degradation risk.