生态相关水文指标的优选及其演变归因分析
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“十三五”国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0601504);国家自然科学基金项目(51979069);中央高校基本科研业务费项目(B200204029)


Optimal selection of the most ecologically relevant hydrological indicators and their evolutionary attributions
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    摘要:

    河流生态系统健康是流域可持续发展的基础,水文情势自然变化是维持河流生态健康的关键因素,因此需进行变化环境下水文情势演变归因研究。以老哈河流域为例,基于1964-2016年水文气象资料,利用趋势及突变检验方法,确定径流序列突变点,划分研究期,并结合可变下渗容量模型重建天然径流;通过主成分分析法确定生态最相关水文指标(ERHIs),并利用变化范围法评估水文指标的改变程度;基于"观测-模拟"对比分析法,定量评估气候变化和人类活动对河道径流和ERHIs的影响。结果表明:流域年径流序列呈现显著减少趋势,突变点为1979年和1999年,将研究期划分为基准期、变化期Ⅰ和变化期Ⅱ;筛选出7个ERHIs,分别为2月流量、6月流量、最大7日流量、年最小流量出现时间、低流量年内发生次数、高流量年内平均历时、上升率; 7个ERHIs中,大部分表现为下降趋势,综合改变度在变化期Ⅰ和变化期Ⅱ分别为0.45和0.74;定量归因结果表明,人类活动是影响ERHIs变化的主要因素,其在变化期Ⅱ对水文情势的影响较变化期Ⅰ更为剧烈。研究提供了生态相关水文指标优选及其演变归因的综合方法,揭示了不同时期流域ERHIs变化的主要驱动因子,为河流适应性管理提供科学依据。

    Abstract:

    The health of a river ecosystem is the foundation of the sustainable development of a basin, while the natural variability of the hydrological regime is a key factor for maintaining and protecting the ecological health of a river. Therefore, variation attribution of the hydrological regime in the changing environment becomes more important. In this study, the Laohahe basin was selected as a case study area and its hydro-meteorological data during 1964-2016 were collected to achieve the study aim. Firstly, the study period was divided according to the trend and change points test results of Mann-Kendall, Pettitt and precipitation-streamflow double cumulative curve method. Then, the natural streamflow series was reconstructed using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. After that, the principal component analysis (PCA) was used to select the most ecologically relevant hydrological indicators (ERHIs). Then the degree of the change of the hydrological indicators was evaluated by the range of variability approach. Finally, the 'simulated-observed' comparison method was adapted to quantify the impacts of climate change and human activities on the variations of streamflow and ERHIs. The results showed that the annual streamflow series of the basin had a significant downward trend (α < 0.05) and its change points appeared in 1979 and 1999, respectively. Then the whole study period could be divided into base period, changed period Ⅰ and Ⅱ based on the above two change points. Then, 7 ERHIs were selected, including February flow, June flow, annual maximum 7-day flow, Julian day of each annual 1-day minimum, number of low pulse each year, mean duration of high pulse within each year, and rise rate. The 6 ERHIs, February flow, June flow, annual maximum 7-day flow, number of low pulse each year, mean duration of high pulse within each year, and rise rate, had a downward trend. While the Julian day of each annual 1-day minimum showed a slight upward trend. Also, the comprehensive degree of change of the 7 ERHIs are 0.45 and 0.74, respectively in the changed period Ⅰ and II. The quantitative attribution results showed that human activities were the dominant factors to cause the changes of ERHIs, and their impacts on hydrological regime during the changed period II were more severe than those during the changed period Ⅰ. This study proposed a comprehensive method for the optimal selection of the most ecologically relevant hydrological indicators and their evolutionary attributions. Then the method was used to reveal the dominant driving factors of the ERHIs change at different periods. These methods and findings will provide a scientific basis for water resource management under changing environment.

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周乐,王瑞,江善虎,王孟浩,刘亚婷,任立良.生态相关水文指标的优选及其演变归因分析.生态学报,2022,42(17):7068~7079

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