三江源区近60年不同气候态极端气温事件时空分布特征
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中国科学院青海省人民政府三江源国家公园联合专项(LHZX-2020-07);第二次青藏高原科考项目(2019QZKK0105);中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室开放基金项目(CAMF-201904)


Temporal and spatial characteristics of extreme temperature events over the Three-river Source Region in different climate states during 1961-2020
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    摘要:

    利用1961-2020年三江源区23个国家气象站点的逐日最高温度和最低温度资料,通过划分1961-1990年、1971-2000年、1981-2010年和1991-2020年4个气候态(分别记做第Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ气候态),分析不同气候态中极端高温和极端低温事件的阈值、频次和强度的时空分布特征并探索其变化原因。空间分布上,极端温度阈值基本表现为海拔越高阈值越低且东西向逐渐降低,不同气候态存在一定的非对称性增温的特征。极端高温频次和强度的空间分布区域性和规律性均优于极端低温,表现为第Ⅰ、Ⅱ气候态自西向东递减,第Ⅲ、Ⅳ气候态自西向东递增的径向空间分布特征;时间变化上,极端高温频次和强度均呈现弱增加-迅速增加-增速放缓的整体增加趋势,而极端低温不同气候态中频次和强度时间变化趋势特征并非全部一致,表现为频次显著增加极端性降低-频次增加极端性增加-频次显著减少极端性显著降低,极端性的下降与三江源区生态保护政策的实施保持一致。进一步归因分析后发现,极端气温与多个环流系统遥相关且存在较好的因果关系,国省碳排放也对极端气温时间序列变化有较好的滞后响应。

    Abstract:

    The Tibet Plateau is the "driver" and "amplifier" reflecting the climate change and also known as the " The world's third pole ". As an important part of the Tibet Plateau, the Three-river Source Region plays an important role in water conservation, climate regulation and ecological security. It is found that the high temperature phenomenon in Qinghai will become more frequent in the 21st century, and the warming rate will be greater than 0.30℃/10a. The increase of temperature will not only directly affect the change of extreme temperature, but also cause extreme climatic events such as high temperature, drought, rainstorm and flood, thus affecting the natural ecological environment and social economic activities. At present, studies on climate change in the Three-river Source Region mainly focus on the days of extreme climate events and the analysis of climate abrupt change, but there are few studies about the changes in frequency and intensity of extreme temperature events of different baseline climate states. Using the daily maximum and minimum temperature data of 23 national meteorological stations in the Three-river Source Region from 1961 to 2020, four climatic states were divided, including I (1961-1990), II (1971-2000), III (1981-2010) and IV (1991-2020). We analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of threshold, frequency and intensity of extreme high temperature and extreme low temperature events in different climate states and explored the reasons for their changes. In terms of spatial distribution, the extreme temperature threshold basically shows that the higher the altitude, the lower the threshold, and gradually decreases from east to west. There are certain asymmetric warming characteristics in different climate states. The spatial distribution of the frequency and intensity of extreme high temperature is better than that of extreme low temperature, which shows the radially spatial distribution characteristics of the first and second climate states decreasing from west to east and the third and fourth climate states increasing from west to east; In terms of time variation, the frequency and intensity of extreme high temperature show an overall increasing trend of weak increase-rapid increase-slowdown of growth. However, the characteristics of time variation trend of frequency and intensity of extreme low temperature in different climatic states are not all consistent, which is manifested in significant increase in frequency, decrease in extreme-increase in frequency, increase in extreme-significant decrease in frequency and decrease in extreme. The decline of extremes is consistent with the implementation of ecological protection policies in the Three-river Source Region. After further analysis, it is found that the extreme temperature is teleconnected with multiple circulation systems, and there is a good causal relationship. The carbon emission of country also has a good lag response to the time series change of extreme temperature.

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赵梦凡,赵彤,颜亮东,李英年,温婷婷,祁栋林,苏文将.三江源区近60年不同气候态极端气温事件时空分布特征.生态学报,2022,42(14):5616~5629

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