Low-carbon tourism is an inevitable way to realize the sustainable development of tourism. Accurately grasping the convergence characteristic and development trend of China's tourism carbon emission efficiency are of great significance to realization of China's "dual carbon" goal. This paper is based on the Super-SBM model to scientifically measure the carbon emission efficiency of China's tourism industry from 2009 to 2019. Then, the spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatio-temporal Markov chain were used to test its convergence effect and in-depth analysis of its temporal and spatial convergence characteristics. Finally, combined with the infinite distribution matrix of the Markov chain, we scientifically predicted the development trend of China's tourism carbon emission efficiency. The result shows that: (1) In terms of time characteristics, the carbon emission efficiency of China's tourism industry has fluctuated and increased in a "roller coaster style" from 2009 to 2019. The eastern region has the highest average efficiency, followed by the western and finally the central region. During the study period, the efficiency showed a significant club convergence distribution, from a "single peak" distribution biased towards lower efficiency in 2009-2014 to a "double peak" distribution biased towards low efficiency and high efficiency in 2015-2019, and clubs with adjacent efficiency levels are more likely to transfer, and the later period is stronger than the earlier period of club convergence effect. (2) In terms of spatial characteristics, under different spatial lag conditions, the carbon emission efficiency of China's tourism industry has a significant club convergence distribution, but the degree of convergence has weakened as the lag level increases. The higher the level of spatial lag, the greater the possibility of an upward shift in efficiency. (3) In terms of provincial efficiency transfer, the efficiency of most central and western provinces remained stable, but some developed coastal provinces and western provinces achieved upward transfer, and only a few central and eastern provinces transferred downward. (4) In terms of the efficiency transfer of provinces and neighbors, most provinces and their neighbors maintain the same transfer direction. Among them, the central and western provinces are in the "with the bad, it also goes bad" situation, and a few eastern coastal and southwestern provinces get rid of the trap of decline in their neighborhoods and realized upward shifts. (5) In terms of the development trend, in the future, the overall carbon emission efficiency of China's tourism industry will be improved, and the spatial distribution will evolve from a "double peak" to a "single peak", but it will still be clustered towards lower efficiency. With the increase in the level of spatial lag, the degree of club convergence has weakened, but the quality of convergence has improved significantly. Finally, this article puts forward specific suggestions in order to promote the sustainable development of China's tourism industry and promote the realization of the "dual carbon" goal.