Abstract:Carbon emissions are comprehensively influenced by multiple economic and social factors such as regional development level, industrial structure, and consumption pattern. Studying the spatio-temporal coupling relationship between regional economic and social factors and carbon emissions not only helps to reveal the influence mechanism of the spatial pattern of each factor within the region on carbon emissions, but also has important practical significance for formulating the differentiated economic, environmental and industrial policies and promoting regional low-carbon coordinated and balanced development. Based on the relevant statistical data of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2005 to 2020, the regional center of gravity model, spatial correlation analysis method, geographic concentration, inconsistency index, and spatial autocorrelation analysis were used to explore the characteristics and geographic concentration of regional population, economy, consumption level, secondary industry, poverty, carbon emission and other economic and social factors of center of gravity shift, and the spatial relationship between each factor and carbon emissions was analyzed. The results show that (1) all economic and social factors in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region deviated from the regional geometric center to different degrees from 2005 to 2020, and each factor was in a long-term spatial imbalance, but the imbalance has been slowed down over time. (2) During the study period, the trajectory of the center of gravity of each economic and social factor had obvious phases, the pattern of the center of gravity of each factor in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was easy to fluctuate, and the spatial coupling of carbon emissions and the center of gravity of other factors showed fluctuating changes. (3) Demographic factors are the main factors affecting the growth of carbon emissions. The gray correlation values of poverty, the proportion of secondary industry, and the level of economic development are also high. Poverty, the proportion of secondary industry, and the level of economic development are also the main drivers of carbon emission growth. (4) The geographic concentration of each factor in the counties (cities and districts) of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region mostly shows a spatial distribution pattern of low in the north and high in the south, and mainly shows the difference between "core-periphery". (5) The imbalance index of each factor in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region gradually increased from 2005 to 2020, and the spatial distribution of each factor and carbon emission gradually changed towards spatial balance, and this trend of change passed the spatial autocorrelation test, so that the regional collaborative development helped carbon emission reduction.