Abstract:Climate change is one of the biggest threats to global biodiversity, and it has a great impact on the geographic distribution of species. Forest species richness in the Northeast China is relatively high, and there is still a lack of comprehensive research based on major tree species and future climate patterns. Based on the distribution data of 12 constructive tree species and 23 environmental variables(19 bioclimatic factors, land use type, altitude, slope, slope aspect) data, this study applied the MaxEnt model to analyze the three climatic changes of arbor species in the Northeast China. The potential abundance distribution patterns, dominant environmental variables, and tree species loss, gain, and turnover under the scenarios (SSP126 sustainable pathway, SSP245 intermediate pathway, and SSP585 fossil fuel-based development pathway) were predicted. The results show that there are differences in the potential distribution changes of various tree species in Northeast China under different future climate scenarios. The tree species with reduced area of suitable habitats are Larix gmelinii, Populus davidiana, Ulmus davidiana var. japonica, Betula platyphylla, Fraxinus mandshurica, Juglans mandshurica, Quercus mongolica, Alnus sibirica, with a decrease rate of 10%-30%; the tree species with little change in the suitable areas are:Picea koraiensis, Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica, and Phellodendron amurense. In most cases, the changes in the areas of low, medium and high suitable areas are offset, resulting in little change in the total of suitable areas; the tree species with increased suitable area are:Pinus koraiensis, with an increase of about 20%. Environmental factors will affect the potential suitability distribution of arbor species in Northeast China. Among them, precipitation plays a key role in the distribution pattern of tree species in Northeast China, especially the seasonal variation of precipitation, which is the dominant environmental factor affecting about 50% of the tree species distribution pattern in Northeast China. Tree species in Northeast China are relatively threatened under no migration and SSP585 climate scenarios, but are mostly at low risk under SSP126 climate scenarios. The moderate migration of tree species can alleviate the threatened situation of tree species. The prediction of species loss and turnover in grid cells shows that the high tree species turnover rate in Northeast China is mainly caused by the high tree species loss rate. Predicting the impact of climate change on tree distribution patterns in Northeast China will help us formulate more effective climate change adaptation strategies to promote sustainable tree development in Northeast China.