Rapid urbanization has accelerated changes in urban ecosystem patterns, leading to a decline in the value of ecosystem services and posing an obstacle to sustainable urban development. To explore which urban development patterns create higher ecosystem service values, Shenzhen is used as a case study to set up three different development patterns-economic, inertial and ecological, using data on ecosystem types in 2010, 2015 and 2020, and to predict changes in various ecosystems in Shenzhen in 2025 using the CA-Markov model. On this basis innovative accounting of the value of key ecosystem services under different models was carried out and compared. The results show that:(1) From 2015 to 2020, all kinds of ecosystems show different change trends. Human settlement ecosystems grow rapidly, causing occupation of all kinds of natural ecosystems. Forest and farmland ecosystems decreased significantly. Urban green space shows an increasing trend, which is mainly reflected in natural reduction and artificial increase. (2) In 2025, the three development modes will have a significant impact on the changes of ecosystem types. Under the inertial development mode, human settlements, urban green space and wetland ecosystem will expand compared with 2020. Under the economic development mode, human settlements and farmland will further increase, the area of natural ecosystem will be significantly reduced, while the area of natural ecosystem under the ecological development mode will be restored. (3) The changes in the value of ecosystem services under the three modes differ significantly. Under the inertial development mode and the economic development mode, the value of ecosystem services decreases significantly due to the reduction in the area of natural ecosystems and the lowering of ecosystem quality, resulting in a decrease of 2.67% and 5.25% respectively compared to 2020. However, under the ecological development mode, the area of natural ecosystems is restored and the quality of ecosystems is improved. The value of ecosystem services increased by 5.5% compared to the economic development model. The difference in the total value of ecosystem regulation services between the three models reached a maximum of 3.81 billion RMB. In a comprehensive view, the future development model should give priority to the development model that prioritizes ecological protection, and improve the area and quality of urban ecological space through the formulation of effective ecological space protection measures such as the delineation of ecological protection red lines, the adjustment of potential urban development zones, and the implementation of ecological projects, maintain and improve the value of ecosystem services, and achieve a harmonious parallel between economic development and ecological protection.