Abstract:Pelagic fishes are becoming more and more important in marine fisheries, with the decline of demersal fishes. The significantly scientific basis can be provided for fish habitat protection and fishery ecosystem management in response to climate change, through prediction of potential habitat distribution and variation of species of pelagic fishes under climate change scenarios. In this study, the potential distribution and habitat suitability for 8 commercially pelagic fish under different climate change scenarios were simulated using species distribution model. The effects of climate change on the spatial distribution framework of pelagic fish were analyzed by constriction-expansion and centroid migration distance in the distribution area. The results showed that:(1) the AUC(Area Under the Curve) values of each model were higher than 0.85, suggested that the accuracy of the model was satisfactory. The sea surface temperature and dissolved oxygen were the main driving factors affecting the potential distribution of target fishes. (2) Among the 8 target pelagic fishes, Rastrelliger kanagurta, Ilisha elongata, etc were distributed in south, which could move northward to the Yangtze River Estuary under climate change scenarios. Engraulis japonicus, Sardinella zunasi, etc were mainly distributed in the northern China seas, and the southern edge of their potential habitats obviously shrunk when climate changed. (3) Overall, the distribution pattern changes were greater under RCP8.5 scenario than RCP2.6 scenario. Species like D. maruadis and S. zunasi may have expansion habitats as potential winners, while R. kanagurta, E. japonicus, etc. may be potential losers. The potential habitat of E. japonicus may have the most reduction. (4) The potential habitats of most pelagic fish may move northwards, however S. zunasi tends to move southward. The average northward distance of habitat centroids under RCP2.6 is predicted to be 89.43 kilometers, and the distance under RCP8.5 is 182.95 kilometers.