城镇化对新疆土地利用碳排放的影响及其耦合关系
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国家自然科学基金(31760151)


Effects of urbanization on carbon emission from land use in Xinjiang and their coupling relationship
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    摘要:

    推进绿色城镇化和发展低碳经济是实现区域可持续发展的关键。运用综合指标法和碳排放模型分别对2000-2018年新疆14个地(州、市)的城镇化水平和土地利用碳排放进行测度,并基于偏最小二乘法和耦合协调度模型对二者的影响机理和耦合关系进行探讨。结果表明:(1)新疆各地(州、市)的新型城镇化水平差异显著,2018年乌鲁木齐市最高(83.43%),克州最低(18.15%),且城镇化的主导类型以人口城镇化→土地城镇化→经济城镇化→社会城镇化的发展顺序转变;(2)新疆土地利用碳效应由负转正,净碳排放量年均增速达7.86×106 t/a,变异系数以2004年为折点,呈倒"V"型变化趋势,2004年后各地(州、市)碳消耗的相对差异逐渐缩小。(3)经济、社会、土地是城镇化影响区域土地利用碳排放的3个重要维度,人均国内生产总值、第二产业增加值、社会消费品零售总额、全社会固定资产投资总额、建成区面积是其中的极重要因素。(4)各地(州、市)城镇化与土地利用碳排放的耦合度、耦合协调度均呈上升趋势,二者具有良好的共振性,且趋于同步发展,表明新疆城镇化发展过程中能源消耗的负向作用日益凸出。最后为提高新疆碳排放效率,促进城镇化绿色发展提出了建议和对策。

    Abstract:

    Promoting green urbanization and developing low-carbon economy are the key to realize the regional sustainable development. This paper uses the comprehensive index method and carbon emission model to measure the urbanization level and carbon emissions from land use in 14 regions (prefectures and cities) in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2018, and uses partial least squares method and coupling coordination model to discuss the influence mechanism and coupling relationship between the urbanization level and carbon emissions from land use. The results show that:(1) there were significant differences in the new urbanization level among different regions (prefectures and cities) in Xinjiang. In 2018, Urumqi had the highest level (83.43%) and Kizilsu Klrgiz Autonomous Prefecture had the lowest level (18.15%). The dominant type of urbanization changed in the order of population urbanization→land urbanization→economic urbanization→social urbanization. (2) The carbon effect of land use in Xinjiang changed from negative to positive, and the average annual growth rate of net carbon emissions reached 7.86×106 t/a. The coefficient of variation took 2004 as a turning point, showing an inverted "V" trend. After 2004, the relative differences in carbon consumption across regions (prefectures and cities) gradually decreased. (3) Economic, social and land urbanization were three important dimensions of urbanization that affect the regional land use carbon emissions. Per capita GDP, the added value of the secondary industry, the total retail sales of social consumer goods, the social fixed-assets investment and the built-up area were the most important factors. (4) The coupling degree and coupling coordination degree of urbanization and carbon emissions from land use in all regions (prefectures and cities) showed an upward trend. Urbanization and carbon emissions from land use had good resonance and tended to develop synchronously, indicating that the negative effect of energy consumption in the development of urbanization in Xinjiang was increasingly prominent. Finally, this paper puts forward suggestions and countermeasures to improve the efficiency of carbon emissions and promote the green development of urbanization in Xinjiang.

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张茹倩,李鹏辉,徐丽萍.城镇化对新疆土地利用碳排放的影响及其耦合关系.生态学报,2022,42(13):5226~5242

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