黄河流域旱塬区农户生计脆弱性及影响因素
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教育部人文社科基金项目(21YJA840014);陕西省社会科学基金项目(2020F004);中央高校基本科研业务费(GK20202001003)


Livelihood vulnerability and its influencing factors of farmers in dryland area of Yellow River Basin
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    摘要:

    黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展成为事关中华民族伟大复兴的千秋大计。人地系统协调与农业农村高质量发展是黄河流域高质量发展的重要内容,也是实施城乡融合与乡村振兴战略的内涵所在。而在气候多变、水旱灾害异常的背景下,依赖农业为生的黄河流域旱塬区农户生计面临着不可持续的威胁。当前亟需评估基于等级差异的农户生计脆弱性影响因素,建立农户的可持续生计,为巩固脱贫攻坚成果、解决相对贫困提供借鉴。以黄河流域旱塬区的渭北旱塬为例,在综合评价农户生计脆弱性指数的基础上对农户的生计脆弱性等级进行排序,使用有序logistic回归分析了影响农户生计脆弱性的关键因素,并进一步使用夏普利值进行分解。结果发现:(1)非农户和一兼户占了研究样本的大多数,从脆弱性的三个维度来看,纯农户的暴露水平最高,敏感性最低,非农户的适应能力最高;(2)回归结果表明,耕地数量、耕地质量、房屋结构、家庭固定资产数量、村民信任、整体健康状况影响显著;(3)夏普利值分解发现,生计资本的排序为:物质资本 > 人力资本 > 社会资本 > 自然资本,各类资本的组成成分中,家庭固定资产数量的贡献度最高,整体健康状况次之,村民信任、耕地质量、房屋结构、耕地数量的贡献度依次递减。建议通过加强技术培训和普及现代化农耕技术,完善社会保障体系和基础设施保障,开展政府助农项目或鼓励农民建立农业合作组织来降低农户的生计脆弱性。

    Abstract:

    The ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin has become vital to the great rejuvenation of China. The coordination of human land system and the high-quality development of agriculture and rural areas are important contents of the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin, which are also the connotation rooted in the implementation of the strategy of urban-rural integration and Rural Revitalization. However, under the background of changeable climate, abnormal flood and drought disasters, the livelihood of farmers in the dryland area of the Yellow River Basin, which depends on agriculture for living, is facing an unsustainable threat. At present, it is urgent to evaluate the influencing factors of the livelihood vulnerability of farmers based on the level difference, and establish the sustainable livelihood of farmers, which can provide reference for consolidating the achievements of poverty alleviation and solving relative poverty. Therefore, this paper takes Weibei dryland of the Yellow River Basin as an example, based on the comprehensive evaluation and rank of livelihood vulnerability index, the key factors affecting farmers' livelihood vulnerability were analyzed by using ordered logistic regression, and the rank of importance was conducted by using Shapley value decomposition. The results show that:(1) off-farm households and agriculture-dependent households account for the majority of the research samples. From the three dimensions of vulnerability, pure agriculture households have the highest exposure level, the lowest sensitivity, and off-farm households have the highest adaptability. (2) The ordered regression results show that the quantity of cultivated land, the quality of cultivated land, the structure of houses, the quantity of family fixed assets, the trust of villagers and the overall health status have a significant impact on farms' livelihood. (3) According to the decomposition of Shapley value, the order of the livelihood capital is:physical capital > human capital > social capital > natural capital. Among the components of all kinds of capitals, the number of family fixed assets has the highest contribution, followed by the overall health status, and the contribution of villagers' trust, cultivated land quality, housing structure and cultivated land quantity decreases in turn. It is suggested to strengthen technical training and popularize modern farming technology, improve the social security system and infrastructure security, carry out government projects or encourage farmers to establish agricultural cooperation organizations to reduce the livelihood vulnerability of farmers.

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樊怡,史兴民,冯晓,宋臻.黄河流域旱塬区农户生计脆弱性及影响因素.生态学报,2022,42(8):3134~3143

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