基于空间规划情景的雄安新区生态系统休闲服务评估预测与驱动分析
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国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0506905);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71673268);国家自然科学基金面上项目(72174193)


Ecosystem leisure services assessment, prediction and driving factors analysis in Xiong'an New Area based on spatial planning scenarios
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    摘要:

    雄安新区作为我国乃至世界智慧生态新型城市建设的重大探索和实践,生态和谐、绿色宜居是新区规划和建设的重要目标之一,城市生态系统为居民提供的生态休闲服务是实现该目标的重要保障与体现。随着新区的开发建设,其土地利用、空间结构、景观组分以及内部生态过程等都将发生巨大变化,这将对生态系统休闲服务供给能力的数量、质量以及可利用性产生复杂影响。从吸引力和可达性两个维度构建了新区生态系统休闲服务的评估模型,对2018年与2035年生态系统休闲服务的能力进行评估与预测,进一步利用地理探测器分析社会因子的驱动作用。研究结果表明:(1)2018年生态系统休闲服务综合指数为5.10,属于中等供给-可访问状态。其中,白洋淀湿地及周围绿带为高吸引力的集中区,可达性高的区域主要分布在雄州镇、安新镇、容城镇附近;(2)相比于2018年,2035年生态系统休闲服务综合指数增加了0.32,但区域整体仍属于中等供给-可访问状态。(3)雄安新区生态系统休闲服务的主要驱动因子从2018年的人口密度和GDP密度转变为2035年的GDP密度与第三产业占比。评估预测结果指示:在雄安新区未来生态系统休闲服务的建设中要特别考虑城镇化进程与经济发展所带来的影响,重点关注起步区的规划、白洋淀沿线交通设施及农田景观的发展。

    Abstract:

    Ecological recreation service plays a vital role in the development of China from high-speed to high-quality urbanization. However, the research on eco-recreation services and their spatial associations has not yet been fully integrated into the assessment of ecosystem services, which has restricted the application of ecosystem services evaluation in decision-making management. Xiong'an New Area is a case of exploratory and practical significance for the construction of new smart ecological cities in China even all over the world. During the process of constructing and planning in this new distinct, two targets including ‘ecological harmony’ and ‘green livable city’ are of tremendous importance. In order to achieve these goals, it is imperative to enhance the ability of recreational ecosystem services for residents. Therefore, in this work, we focused on two key scientific problems, namely eco-recreation services process and spatial analysis, to identify the spatial associations, developed a GIS application module, and realized spatial simulation and visualization of regional eco-recreation services. For evaluating the impact of the development on recreational ecosystem services, an evaluation model based on attractiveness and accessibility was established to assess the capabilities of recreational ecosystem services in Xiong'an New Area in 2018. Then, according to spatial planning scenarios, we also predicted the scenarios in 2035. Furthermore, the correlation between critically social influencing factors and recreational ecosystem services was analyzed on the basis of geographic detectors. Results showed that:(1) the attractiveness index of recreational ecosystem services in 2018, with Baiyangdian Lake as the core, decreased with the increase of distance. Besides, high-accessibility areas were mainly distributed in Xiongzhou, Anxin and Rongcheng towns. The comprehensive index of ecosystem leisure services in Xiong'an area was 5.10 in 2018, and the overall supply was medium-accessible. (2) Compared with 2018, the Complex Index of recreational ecosystem services will increase by 0.32 in 2035, while the distinct will be still in a medium-supply-accessible state. For the spatial distribution, the high attraction area will expand to some extent, for Baiyangdian Lake will be still the core, and the high accessibility areas will be concentrated in the northern starting area and surrounding groups. (3) There was an obvious spatio-tempo discrepancy in the driving forces of social factors on ecosystem leisure services. The main driving factors has switched from population density and GDP density in 2018 to GDP density and the proportion of tertiary industry in 2035. The results of the evaluation and prediction can provide systematic countermeasures and suggestions for the planning and construction of the Complex Index in Xiong'an New Area.

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商煦,荣月静,严岩,范捷朦,赵春黎,王辰星.基于空间规划情景的雄安新区生态系统休闲服务评估预测与驱动分析.生态学报,2022,42(11):4640~4653

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