Abstract:Stable, coordinated and sustainable supply of ecosystem services is the foundation for maintaining regional natural life systems and ensuring regional ecological security. Facing the human and natural disturbances to ecosystem, it is necessary to accurately assess the risk of ecosystem service degradation, and reveal the improvement path of regional ecological security and sustainability. However, existing studies mostly overlay all ecosystem services to assess the degradation risk of ecosystem services, and fail to integrate different types of ecosystem services in response to regional ecological problems or ecological needs. This research proposed a framework for ecosystem service degradation risk scenario simulation for multiple ecological conservation objectives. Considering three ecological conservation objectives of Guangdong Province with biodiversity conservation, water resources security and natural disaster prevention, representative ecosystem service types (habitat maintenance, water conservation, water quality purification, soil retention, flood mitigation, tropical cyclone mitigation) were selected. Degradation risk of ecosystem services for 2018-2035 was assessed based on Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios. The results showed that the spatial pattern of ecosystem services supply in Guangdong Province was basically stable from 2018 to 2035, although there was some degradation and strong spatial heterogeneity. Scenario simulation for ecosystem service degradation risks showed that high-risk areas of ecosystem service degradation for biodiversity conservation objective were located in Shenzhen, Foshan and Jiangmen in the Pearl River Delta, and Zhanjiang and Maoming in western and eastern Guangdong regions. The high-risk areas of ecosystem service degradation facing water resources security objective were located in Shenzhen, Zhongshan and Jiangmen in the Pearl River Delta, and Maoming, Jieyang and Jiangmen in the western and eastern Guangdong regions. The high-risk areas of ecosystem service degradation for natural disaster prevention objective were located in Shenzhen and Jiangmen in the Pearl River Delta, Maoming, Zhanjiang and Jieyang in the western and eastern Guangdong regions. These areas have high future ecological risks and is key area for ecosystem service degradation risk prevention in Guangdong Province. Facing multiple ecological conservation objectives, the Guangdong Province ecosystem service degradation risk response strategy should attach importance to the conservation of urban ecosystem biodiversity, strengthen the protection and restoration of ecological lands, especially mangroves, implement hierarchical management and control of watersheds, and carry out ecological protection and restoration projects oriented to multiple ecological conservation objectives according to local conditions. We should actively adopt climate change-related intervention policies and choose green and sustainable development paths with low resource consumption and low ecological impact.