Invasive plants, which could multiply and spread rapidly due to their strong adaptability, affect the growth and survival of native species, and thus threaten the local ecological security, landscape and agricultural production. Since the ecological environment of Tibet is vulnerable, once the large-scale invasion of malignant species occurs, the consequences of ecological are unimaginable. In order to investigate influence of invasive plant Tagetes minuta L. on the ecological security in southeastern Tibet in this study, the adopted MaxEnt model based on the data of field survey was used to explore the main environmental factors which contributed to its geographic distribution, and simulate the distribution of potentially suitable areas in Tibet under contemporary and two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5) by the R language platform. The results show that:(1) both the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of training and test data set were 0.997, indicating that the simulation effect of the model was good. Acidity of the underlying soil, precipitation in the warmest season, available water storage capacity of the soil and max temperature of the warmest month were the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of Tagetes minuta L., and the total contribution rate was more than 90%. (2) Jiacha County and Lang County are the most densely distributed areas of Tagetes minuta L. based on the field survey. Milin County, Linzhi City, Chayu County and Motuo (Medog) County will be the high-risk areas for Tagetes minuta L. invasion based on field survey and model prediction. (3) The suitable and potential area for growth and clonization of Tagetes minuta L. would increase significantly in the middle and short term (2050s), but will decrease in the 2070s based on the model simulation. The suitable area of Tagetes minuta L. would expand furtherly in the southeast of Tibet and will expand to the northeastern area, and its distribution center would move from the current Motuo County to Bomi County. In general, the distribution of Tagetes minuta L. was greatly affected by soil environment, temperature and precipitation, and climate change would make it expand more wildly to the east and south area of Tibet. The results could help to provide theoretical support for Tibet to formulate prevention and control strategies for invasive species.