Abstract:The development of land space of Xiong'an New Area led to significant changes in land use, which had an important impact on the regional ecosystem. Based on four remote sensing images in 2014, 2016, 2018 and 2020, this paper systematically analyzed the dynamic change process of land use of Xiong'an New Area. Subsequently, the impact of land space development on regional ecosystem service values (ESV) was quantitatively estimated. Finally, according to the development plan of Xiong'an New Area, combined with the road network and digital elevation model, the future land-use pattern and ESV changes were predicted and prospected using FLUS. The results showed that:(1) from 2014 to 2020, the land-use change of Xiong'an New Area was mainly reflected in the continuous increase of construction land (+56.80 km2), forestland (+72.59 km2) and water body (+54.01 km2), while the farmland (-208.76 km2) decreased significantly. And the newly added construction land and forestland chiefly came from the decrease of farmland,while the water body increase was largely due to the degradation of farmland around Baiyang Lake. (2) The total ESV of Xiong'an New Area was on a comprehensively increasing trend by 451 million yuan, with the most value increase of aesthetic landscape (+39.41%), hydrological regulation (+32.77%), and raw material production (+25.78%). But, the ability of food production had shown a strong downward trend (-10.78%). The increase was faster after the formal establishment. (3) The spatial and temporal changes of ESV were significantly correlated with land use. The increase mainly came from the value generated by the transformation of construction land to water body and to farmland in Baiyang Lake, while the decrease mainly came from the degradation of hydrological regulation and waste treatment function caused by the rapid expansion of construction land outside Baiyang Lake. (4) The forecast results based on the development plan showed that the land-use situation of Xiong'an New Area in 2035 and 2050 would be manifested in the expansion of construction land in north zone, the spread of forestland throughout the area, and the growth of Baiyang Lake. And then, there would be a substantial increase in the total ESV of 6.391 billion yuan and 6.831 billion yuan, respectively. The ecosystem quality would continue to improve. The research results were of great significance to accurately understand the dynamic characteristics of ESV in the process of land-use change, and could provide scientific auxiliary basis for the land spatial planning of Xiong'an New Area under ecological sustainable development.