Being sensitive to climate change, Sichuan Province (China) has been seriously affected by the warming and drying regional climate. In particular, Abies faxoniana, an endemic species in China that forms the habitats for giant pandas, has been a research focus. Understanding how Abies faxoniana responds to the climate change is useful to guide future activities to protect or restore the forests. To predict how Abies faxoniana distribution may change in the future, we firstly used an ecological niche model to determine the suitable climate for Abies faxoniana based on current climate and species distribution. Then, we projected the potential suitable distribution areas for Abies faxoniana in two future periods (2050s and 2070s) at three different climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP 8.5). Lastly, we explored the key environmental factors and thresholds that drived Abies faxoniana distribution change. The model results suggested that:(1) high suitable areas of Abies faxoniana were concentrated in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River Basin in contemporary. In the future two periods, the area of the potential medium and highly suitable areas for Abies faxoniana would increase compared with the suitable areas under contemporary climatic conditions, and the suitable areas would expand to southern Sichuan Province, while the suitable habitats in the north would be degenerated. (2) The potential moderately suitable area of Abies faxoniana had the highest area proportion under the low emission concentration (RCP2.6), while the potentially highly suitable area had the highest area under the high emission concentration (RCP8.5). (3) The key environmental drivers for the shift of potential distribution of Abies faxoniana were precipitation seasonality, temperature annual range, annual precipitation, and altitude (cumulative contribution >70%). The suitable climate conditions for Abies faxoniana were temperature annual range from 29.3-32.5℃, precipitation seasonality from 76.5-85.4, and annual precipitation 694.1-791.7 mm. The model results highlighted the key drivers for Abies faxoniana distribution shift in the future, and the areas that were prune to climate change. The model results may help guide future renewal and restoration of Abies faxoniana, as well as protection and migration of giant panda living habitats.