黄河流域可持续发展评估及协同发展策略
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国家自然科学基金项目(42041005,42001267);中国科学院国际合作局国际大科学计划培育专项(121311KYSB20170004);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20050103)


Sustainable development assessment of the Yellow River Basin and the coordinated development strategy
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    摘要:

    作为我国重要的生态屏障和经济带,黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展是我国的重大战略需求。目前,黄河流域水资源利用效率较低、水资源配置不甚合理等问题,阻碍了流域整体的可持续发展。以黄河流域上、中、下游9个省份作为研究对象,引入目标间均衡度这一新的评估方法,通过分析上中下游在可持续发展目标达成状况、发展路径、对黄河水资源的依赖程度和工农业用水效率等方面的差异,探讨了基于水资源优化利用的协同发展策略。研究结果表明:(1)2000-2015年间,黄河九省的可持续发展指数都有了显著提高,在不考虑各可持续发展目标间的均衡度时,中下游地区的可持续发展状况显著优于上游地区,考虑均衡度后则未发现显著差异;(2)忽略均衡度对评估结果带来的偏差也体现在省级层面上,如宁夏和山西在不考虑均衡度时都被认为取得了良好的发展,但实际上两者的发展主要体现在少部分目标上,和环境保护相关的部分目标反而出现了退步,这说明不考虑均衡度可能会高估可持续发展目标达成度;(3)黄河流域上中下游均有对黄河水资源较为依赖的省份,这些省份间工农业用水量和用水效率等存在较大差异,总体来看,上游地区用水效率较低,中下游地区用水效率较高;(4)取水量与17个可持续发展目标间的关系在上中下游有所差异,在上游地区取水量同多数目标无关或呈负相关关系,说明限制上游地区可持续发展的因素不是水资源,而在中下游地区取水量的增加则能够促进一些同经济和社会发展相关的目标。可以通过加强上、中、下游间的合作,优化产业结构和水资源配置,提高流域整体的水资源利用效率,促进流域生态环境保护,最终实现全流域的可持续发展。

    Abstract:

    The Yellow River Basin is a crucially ecological barrier and economic belt in China, whose ecological protection and sustainable development are of great importance to the national development strategy. However, the low water-use efficiency and the improvable allocation scheme of water resources have impeded the holistic achievement of sustainable development in the Yellow River Basin. Here, this study adopted the evenness among SDGs and investigated the differences in the performance of sustainable development goals (SDGs), developing pathways, dependence on the water resources from the Yellow River, and water-use efficiency for agriculture and industry among nine provinces in the upper, middle and lower basins. The coordinated development strategy was then discussed based on the optimal utilization of water resources. Our results showed that:(1) from 2000 to 2015, the sustainable development score of the nine provinces of the Yellow River Basin had increased significantly. The middle and lower basins had a significantly better performance of SDGs than the upper basin only when neglecting the evenness among SDGs. (2) The deviation caused by ignoring the evenness among SDGs was also reflected at the provincial level. For example, Ningxia and Shanxi were previously considered to achieve well performances towards SDGs. However, their development was mainly reflected in a few SDGs, whereas many SDGs related to environmental protection had fallen back (e.g., SDG15). These results suggested that the performance of SDGs might be overestimated without considering the evenness among goals. (3) Regardless of the location along the Basin, the water consumption in many provinces was dependent on the Yellow River. However, the industrial and agricultural water consumption and water-use efficiency largely varied among these provinces. Generally, the water-use efficiency in the upper basin was relatively lower compared with that in the middle and lower basins. (4) The correlations between the water withdrawal amount and the 17 SDGs were different in the upper, middle, and lower basins. The amount of water withdrawal in the upper basin was irrelevant or negatively correlated with most of the SDGs, indicating that the limiting factor for its sustainable development was not the water resources; while the increase in water withdrawal could promote some SDGs related to economic and social development in the middle and lower basins. Overall, this study points out that it is important to strengthen the cooperation among the upper, middle, and lower basins through optimizing the industrial structure and water resources allocation, which could further promote the overall water-use efficiency and the ecological conservation of the whole basin, and eventually achieve the sustainable development of the whole Yellow River Basin.

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宁瑶,刘雅莉,杜剑卿,杨雅茜,王艳芬.黄河流域可持续发展评估及协同发展策略.生态学报,2022,42(3):990~1001

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