Simulating the change of ecosystem service value caused by land use change in Baiyangdian Basin under multi scenario is of great significance to ensure the ecological security of the basin and enhance the ability of regional ecosystem service value. Based on the Remote Sensing Image and Statistics Yearbook of 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, choosing county-level administrative districts in the upper and lower reaches of Baiyangdian Basin as the study area, this paper analyzed and calculated the land use and ecosystem service value changes in Baiyangdian Basin over the past 30 years. Moreover, the CA-Markov model was used to simulate land use change in the study area under three scenarios, including trend continuation, balanced development, and overall development in 2035. This paper estimated the ecosystem service value for each scenario, and the grid tools were used to visualized the spatial distribution and concentration of ecosystem service value under three scenarios. The results showed that, ①The most obvious feature of land use change in Baiyangdian Basin from 1990 to 2020 was the sharp reduction of cultivated land area and the rapid expansion of construction land. The cultivated land area had decreased by 122776.99hm², while construction land increased by 167369.74hm² in the past 30 years. ②From 1990 to 2020, the value of ecosystem services in the study area was 85.259 billion yuan, 78.826 billion yuan, 79.695 billion yuan and 78.468 billion yuan respectively, presenting a fluctuating downward trend. ③Under the three simulation scenarios of trend continuation, balanced development and overall development, the value of ecosystem services was 78.536 billion yuan, 80.726 billion yuan and 81.246 billion yuan respectively. The ecosystem service value in the study area presented the spatial distribution characteristics of high in Northwest and low in Southeast. ④The hot spots and cold spots of ecosystem service value were distributed in a large range and had strong agglomeration. The hot spots were mainly concentrated in the mountainous area in the northwest, and the cold spots were mainly distributed in the plain area in the southeast of the study area and some areas in the northwest of the study area. Simulating the future land use change trend of Baiyangdian Basin and exploring the response of ecosystem service value under different situations is conducive to building a new pattern of land spatial development and protection of the basin. This paper provides a scientific basis and decision-making reference for comprehensively promoting the sustainable development of Baiyangdian Basin in the future.