Research on CO₂ emissions and the economic cost of carbon reduction has received increasing attention from academics and policy makers. The Chinese government's statement on striving to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 has aroused the heated discussions in the international community. In this context, it is of practical significance to predict China's future long-term CO₂ emissions scenarios. Based on the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model, this paper evaluates the impacts of population, economy, and education on CO₂ emissions and verifies the accuracy of the CO₂ emission prediction model by comparing with historical data. Combined with the settings and model parameters of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, this paper predicts China's CO₂ emission trajectory and economic costs from 2020 to 2100 under five scenarios. The results show that:(1) considering the realization of the goal of reaching the peak of CO₂ emissions, the SSP3 scenario is the best scenario for China's future development. Under this scenario, China is expected to achieve the goal of reaching the peak of CO₂ emissions three years ahead of schedule. (2) The SSP3 scenario can keep China's annual total CO₂ emissions and per capita CO₂ emissions at the lowest levels relative to the other four scenarios, but at the cost of a cumulative GDP reduction of 5.49% to 8.80%. (3) To fulfill the commitment to achieve CO₂ emission neutrality by 2060, the Chinese government will need to face a CO₂ neutralization amount of 409.36 to 467.42 Gt over the next 40 years. (4) China's CO₂ emission intensity in 2020 will be 40.52% to 41.39% lower than the 2005 level, and the CO₂ emission intensity in 2030 will be 59.64% to 60.75% lower than the 2005 level. Among the five scenarios, the SSP5 scenario is the best scenario for reducing the CO₂ emission intensity, which can exceed the CO₂ emission intensity target to the maximum extent. In the future, the pressure of the Chinese government to reduce CO₂ emission will further increase which is affected by important factors such as economic development and population growth. In the post-epidemic era, considering the reduction of energy supply and the development of high-tech industry, the rising social cost of CO₂ emissions will create an opportunity for China to decarbonize the energy system. China should continue to improve energy efficiency, upgrade industrial structure, promote low-carbon consumption and implement implied carbon strategy during the 14th five-year Plan period, so as to achieve the CO₂ reduction target as soon as possible.