Xiamen-Zhangzhou-Quanzhou Region is located in the southeast of Fujian Province, China. It's a crucial area of ecological protection and restoration in Fujian Province. The identification and warning of fragile ecological area means significantly to implementation of ecological restoration. Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA) model, Minimum Cumulative Resistance (MCR) model and other methods were utilized to build ecological security pattern in this region. At the meantime, the ecological sources were dynamically stable and connected. Then, land use change in 2030 was simulated by using the FLUS model under the restriction of the ecological security pattern. It means the area of ecological sources was restricted from changing during this period. FLUS model also comprehensively divided the territory ecological protection and restoration area into different kinds and warned the potential risk. The results showed that the ecological security pattern of the study area was composed of 12 ecological sources, 66 potential ecological corridors, 13 important ecological corridors and several ecological nodes. The ecological sources were mainly distributed in the west of the study area, which was composed of mountains, hills and rivers.. And the ecological corridors widely spread out into a complicated network. Some counties (districts) with fragile habitats had no ecological sources and corridors distribution like Shishi, Jinjiang. The ecological nodes were massively gathering together in Nan'an and Zhangzhou city. After that, it's predicted in 2030, the area of cultivated land and woodland in the study area would gradually decrease about 2.59% and 1.14% due to great expansion of construction land. As the construction land expanded to the surrounding cultivated land and woodland in a circular way, it was squeezing the ecological space and threatening the ecological sources area and corridors. The expansion patterns of coastal areas and inland areas in the study area were different. The construction land of coastal cities and counties mainly expanded in a belt shape, while the original built-up areas mainly expanded outward in a ring shape. In conclusion, this study separated one ecological sources protection belt and two ecological restoration cores, and pointed out the potential risk of ecological protection space. They were significantly concentrated in Quanzhou and Zhangzhou districts. Meanwhile, it is expected to give some fundamental information to further improvement of ecological security of territorial space. Also, we believe that it can contribute a lot to carry out synergy governance of ecological protection and restoration, as well as to promote regional ecology quality and human's well-being.