生态修复项目成本-效益动态评估
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国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0501002)


Cost-benefit evaluation of Chinese ecological restoration programs
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    摘要:

    生态系统服务价值评估是全球生态学和经济学研究的热点领域,然而,多数学者在开展生态系统服务价值估算时忽略了生态系统在提供服务时所需要的成本或者仅仅计算了部分成本;生态系统服务净价值评估方法虽然对生态系统服务价值评估方法进行了改进,但没有考虑生态修复项目实施前和实施后土地景观变化引起净价值的变化,获得的结果只能反映土地利用的静态效益,不能反映生态修复项目引起土地变更的成本-收益动态变化。因此,构建基于生态系统服务和投入产出相结合的生态修复项目成本-效益动态评估新方法,是生态修复研究领域的重要科学问题。为了弥补这一领域的不足,该研究构建了生态工程成本-效益动态评估新方法,并以三北防护林、天然林保护、退耕还林工程为研究案例,验证了这一评估方法。结果表明,与项目实施前相比,三北防护林、天然林保护、退耕还林工程每年增加的净收益分别为 461.7×109、2930.5×109、530.1×109 元,收益率分别为29.3%、328.9%、77.0%。六种典型生态修复措施中退耕地种植经济林、荒地种植经济林和天然植被恢复能够在每个省产生净收益,荒地造林、飞播造林和退耕还林的实施会在部分地区产生损耗。依据成本-效益动态评估方法核算的结果可以帮助政府部门选择最佳土地利用和保护措施,最大限度地提高生态修复项目的生态经济效益。由于不同地区社会经济条件和资源禀赋存在较大差异,尊重区域差异因地制宜的生态修复非常必要。

    Abstract:

    To mitigate or reverse ecosystem degradation, China has invested huge sums of money since 1978 in ecological restoration projects such as the Three North Shelter Forest Project (TNSFP), Natural Forest Conservation Program (NFCP), and Grain for Green Program (GGP). However, a lack of effective evaluation methods has made it difficult to tell whether these programs were cost-effective. In the present study, we improved the input-output evaluation method to evaluate how the cost-effectiveness of these ecological restoration projects has changed over time. Specifically, we compared the costs and benefits before and after implementing the three restoration programs. The annual net benefits were 461.7×109 RMB for the TNSFP, 2930.5×109 RMB for the NFCP, and 530.1×109 RMB for the GGP. The corresponding net benefits per unit area were 6.5×103, 17.6×103, and 18.2×103 RMB hm-2 a-1, respectively. These values equal 29.3%, 328.9%, and 77.0% of the costs of these investments. Among the six ecological restoration measures, establishing fruit tree plantations in farmland and degraded land and protecting vegetation to allow natural recovery generated net benefits in every Chinese province. Afforestation of degraded land, aerial seeding afforestation, and afforestation of farmland produced net negative benefits (i.e., losses) in some areas. Due to large differences in socioeconomic conditions and resource endowments among China's diverse regions, it is necessary to respect these differences and design ecological restoration strategies tailored to local conditions. Our improved cost-benefit analysis for ecosystem services can help governments choose better land uses and improve ecological conservation strategies to maximize both their ecological success and their cost-effectiveness.

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赵廷阳,夏成琪,索鑫浩,曹世雄.生态修复项目成本-效益动态评估.生态学报,2021,41(12):4757~4764

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