The National Natural Science Foundation of China (General Program, Key Program, Major Research Plan), Provincial and ministerial research project fund
Understanding the city's unique ecological-economic-social system coordination and optimization characteristics is an important prerequisite for achieving sustainable development of forestry resource-based cities. This study constructed a measurement and evaluation index system of the forestry resource-based city composite system from three dimensions of ecology, economy and society. Entropy method and coupling coordination degree model were used to evaluate the coordinated development of Yichun City by using the ecological, economic, and social data from 2005 to 2018. The obstacle degree model was used to analyze the main factors that affected the coordinated development and the GM (1,1) gray forecast model was used for development prediction. The results show that:(1) the comprehensive development index is on the rise. The main driving force to promote the comprehensive development of ecology, economy and society has gone through the development process from ecology to economy, and then ecology as the main driving force. On the whole, the development momentum is increasingly converging. Promoting the balanced coordination of the three-dimensional system is an important direction for future development. (2) The coupling degree of the three-dimensional system is stable at a relatively high level. The interdependence and interaction between the subsystems are relatively high and the degree of coordination fluctuates, which realizes the transformation from barely coordinated and backward economic development to good coordinated and synchronous development. The state of coordination tends to be good; (3) The social subsystem in the three-dimensional system has the greatest obstacle to the coordinated development. Four indicators, including the natural population growth rate, the green coverage rate of the built-up area, the GDP growth rate, and the proportion of employment in the tertiary industry, are the main obstacle factors restricting the near-term coordinated development; (4) From 2019 to 2030, the development index of ecological, economic, and social subsystem and the predicted value of coordination are all on the rise, which means the ecological-economic-social comprehensive system would evolve to a better state of coordination development, among which the economic subsystem will once again be the main driving force to push the ecological-economic-social comprehensive development of the city. It is suggested that Yichun should put its emphasis on strengthening the ecological construction, guiding ecological innovation, striving to developing ecological economy, improving the level of social development, making efforts to reduce the resistance of obstacle factors to coordinated development, and realizing the linkage and healthy development of the three, which is an important direction for the future development of Yichun.