Abstract:Urban areas face the problems of insufficient ability to withstand and recover from natural disasters. The purpose of this study is to construct an analysis framework of supply and demand of ecosystem services for identifying the risk zones in urban space governance. A perspective of carrying vulnerability of natural disasters was applied in ecosystem services demand analysis for improving the security level in urban areas. Taking Zhuhai in Guangdong Province, as a case study area, this study selected three ecosystem services, including water conservation service, soil conservation service and typhoon protection service, which play an important role in improving the ability of Zhuhai to resist natural disasters. InVEST model and remote sensing image analysis were used to evaluate the supply of ecosystem services. An assessment framework of carrying vulnerability of natural disasters was constructed to assess the demand of ecosystem services. Risk zones were identified by the degree and type of supply-demand mismatch. The results showed that: (1) there were four supply-demand matching types of ecosystem services in Zhuhai: high supply and high demand, high supply and low demand, low supply and high demand, and low supply and low demand. The dominant matching types of the three ecosystem services were all low supply and low demand. The degree of supply-demand mismatch in Zhuhai was soil conservation service > water conservation service > typhoon protection service. (2) Based on supply-demand matching degree and types, four categories of risk zones were classified. The proportions of high-risk zone, medium-risk zone, low-risk zone and safe zone were 29.23%, 21.70%, 33.06%, and 16.01% of the total study areas. According to the land use structure of the risk zones, there was a close relationship between the risk grades and the proportion of construction land. The risk grades were affected by the allocation of ecological, production and living space in the region. (3) The ecological security in high-risk zone was most seriously threatened and should be highly prioritized. According to the categories of high-risk zone, three kinds of governance zoning were proposed: multi-risk comprehensive governance area, double-risk compound governance area and dominant-risk special governance area. This study contributes to a new perspective for improving the match analysis between supply and demand of ecosystem services. By identifying the hot spots where the vulnerability to disasters is high and the capacity to withstand disasters is low, our framework provides a reference for the enhancement of the capacity to resist disasters and the urban territorial space governance.