Abstract:Analysis of the spatio-temporal evolution process and characteristics of the land-use changes (LUCC), ecosystem services value (ESV), and ecological carrying capacity (ECC) of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA) is an important basis for optimizing ecosystem management and improving ecosystem quality. Currently, there are still few comprehensive analyses on the combination the LUCC, ESV, and ECC of the GBA. This study uses the high-resolution remote sensing data to study the land-use changes and features of the GBA from 1990 to 2015, estimates the ESV based on the equivalent factor method, and evaluates the ECC based on the ecological footprint method. The results showed that from 1990 to 2015, the area of built-up land in GBA increased from 4407.58 km2 to 8912.31 km2, while the areas of cropland, forest, wetland, and unused land decreased significantly. The area of the forest and cropland decreased 3.19% and 17.23% respectively. The increase of built-up land mainly came from cropland, forest, and water body and 2000-2010 was the most obvious time period. With the dramatic land-use changes, the ESV of the GBA decreased from 6385.09 billion yuan in 1900 to 6183.89 billion yuan in 2015 (decreased by 3.15%). Water contributed the most to ESV and the ESV of food production and hydrological regulation were the highest. Wetland had the greatest loss of value, decreasing by -54.64%, followed by unused lands, which decreased by 45.03%. The regional ecological footprint (EF) of the GBA increased rapidly from 80.57 hm2 in 1990 to 241.31 hm2 in 2015. The consumption of fossil energy has the largest increase, from 9.21 hm2 in 1990 to 44.13 hm2 in 2015. The ECC of GBA is generally stable, but the overall ecological deficit is serious due to the increased consumption. In 2015, the regional ecological deficit reached 214.88 million hm2 and the per capita ecological load reached 3.09 hm2. With a 50% increase in population and nearly 15-fold increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 1990 to 2015, the EF per GDP showed a clear downward trend from 1.47 hm2/yuan to 0.28 hm2/yuan, which indicates that although the overall resource utilization of the GBA has gradually changed from extensive and consumptive to intensive and economical, the overall situation is still challenging. In the future land use planning of the GBA, it is necessary to strengthen the protection of natural resources and rational adjustment of land-use structure to realize the sustainable development of economy and ecology.