Phoebe bournei is a rare and endangered plant under second-class protected plant in China. It is not only a valuable timber tree species, but also has important ecological value. It is of great significance to predict the changes of its potential suitable areas. In order to establish the optimal model, we use the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) optimized by the Enmeval data packet. Based on 186 distribution records and 9 environmental variables, the potential distribution areas of six climatic scenarios in 2050s (average of 2041-2060) and 2090s (average of 2081-2100) were simulated. Integrating Jackknife test, important value and contribution rate of replacement and the limited environmental factors, the environmental factors affecting the suitable distribution area of P. bournei were discussed. The results show that (1) the parameters of the optimal model are FC=PT, RM=0.5, Maxnnt model has high prediction accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.9846±0.0037. The total suitable area of the modern potentially geographical distribution of P. bournei 54.32×10⁴km². The modern highly suitable areas of P. bournei are concentrated in northeast Guangxi and southern Hunan. (2) In the prediction of the future suitable growth areas, the potential suitable growth areas under the six climate scenarios all expanded northward, with the exception of 2050s-SSP585; the other scenario suitable areas increased slightly, especially under the scenario 2070s-SSP126, the highly suitable areas will be reduced by 40.32%. (3) The precipitation of the driest month (bio14), precipitation seasonality (coefficient of variation) (bio15), minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18), and maximum temperature of the warmest month (bio5) are important environmental factors restricting the distribution pattern of P. bournei. (4) The geographical distribution range of P. bournei in different periods was quite different, which indicated that P. bournei had poor resistance to climate change. Deforestation, habitat destruction and self breeding problems may be the important reasons for its extinction. Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan and southern Zhejiang are stably suitable areas and future climate refuge areas for P. bournei. The central Taiwan, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, southwest Hubei, and southern Zhejiang are ideal introduction areas of P. bournei plantation. With the aggravation of climate warming, most areas of Guangdong, Guangxi and Guizhou will no longer be suitable for the growth of P. bournei, and it is suggested that priority should be given to the protection of the population in Guangdong, Guangxi and Guizhou.