Abstract:The upper reaches of the Minjiang River (URMR) are one of the typical ecologically fragile areas in southwest China. Studying the dynamic changes of land use pattern and the ecosystem service values (ESV) in the URMR is highly significant for the ecological protection and sustainable development of the region. Based on four phases of remote sensing data obtained during 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 in URMR, we predicted the land use pattern in 2035 by using the CA-Markov model. The ecosystem service value was revised by introducing the coefficients of spatial heterogeneity, socioeconomic adjustment, and resource scarcity. Subsequently, an ESV evaluation model for the study area was developed. The spatiotemporal changes in land use and ESV in the URMR were analysed for the period 2000 to 2035. The results indicate that:1) the two main types of land use in the URMR are forest and grassland. The area of construction land and cultivated land exhibited an increasing trend, whereas grassland, water bodies, and unutilized land showed fluctuations. 2) Compared with the period 2000-2015, the growth rate of ESV and the ability of land to sustain ecological services declined in 2015-2035. The maintenance of biodiversity and soil, and the regulation of gas, hydrology, and climate were found to be the main functions of the ecosystem in the URMR. 3) Cold spots with ESV loss and low ESV were concentrated in the middle-eastern part of the URMR and the valley area, whereas hot spots with ESV increment and high ESV were concentrated in the western area. 4) ESV was relatively inelastic with respect to the coefficient, and changes in forest and grassland areas were the most sensitive factors that generate changes in the ecosystem service values. Our results have significant importance for realizing a reasonable land use pattern of the study area that facilitates the construction of an ecological civilisation.