Abstract:As one of the most effective methods of value transfer, meta-analysis has been widely used in ecosystem services evaluation in recent years. However, most of the meta-regression models used in relevant studies in China are based on the traditional least squares method, which ignores the hierarchical structure of the original data. In this research, considering the data correlation and hierarchy in relevant studies, we established a meta-analysis database by collecting the results of forest ecosystem services evaluation of existing empirical studies in China from 1990 to 2019. Then we used the panel data regression method to build a meta-regression model and assessed the model's effectiveness for value transfer. Finally, on the basis of the established meta-regression model, we calculated the forest ecosystem services value in China from 2010 to 2100 under the four scenarios in the IPCC SRES:A1B, A2, B1, and B2. The results showed the following:(1) The model based on the panel data regression method was the most effective with the average transfer error of 11.57%, compared with the model based on the ordinary least squares method and the weighted least squares method. Therefore, the panel data regression was considered the most suitable method for this research. What's more, this model performed better for higher observed values. When the observed value was small, the predicted value of the model was mostly higher than the observation and the transfer error was relatively high; when the observed value was large, the predicted value of the model was mostly lower than the observation and the transfer error was relatively low. (2) The meta-regression model based on the panel data regression method could effectively reveal the law of value transfer of forest ecosystem services in China. It affirmed that ecosystem service types, vegetation zoning, forest area, forest abundance, per capita GDP, and railway length were important factors affecting forest ecosystem services value in China. (3) The scenario analysis of the forest ecosystem services value in China from 2010 to 2100 revealed that the forest area and the total ecosystem services value continued to increase (decrease) under scenario A1B and scenario B1 (scenario A2), which both increased first and then decreased under scenario B2. Among these four scenarios, the total ecosystem services value in China showed the most significant increase under scenario B1, reaching 41.58 trillion yuan by 2100. On the contrary, the total ecosystem services value lost most under scenario B2, which decreased to 22.97 trillion yuan by 2100.