Abstract:Land use/cover change is a hot issue in the global change field, and it is of profound significance to assess the impact of county-scale land use change on ecosystem service values to promote eco-environmental protection and evolve the coordinated development of urban and rural areas. Based on CLUE-S model and five consecutive remote sensing images of Banan District of Chongqing from 2000 to 2020, this study predicted the spatial-temporal dynamics of the profit and loss of ecosystem service values under land use change in the next 10 years, quantified the effect of land use change on the service value. The results showed that the dominant land use change in Banan District was continuous conversion of farm land to other land types with forest area increasing significantly, and this trend would continue for the next 10 years. From 2000 to 2030, the proportion of farm land in Banan District will decrease by 39.58%, while the proportion of forest land will increase by 28.86% and will replace the farm land as the most main land use type after 2025. The proportions of construction land, water area and unused land area will increase by 8.29%, 2.25% and 0.18%, respectively, during the simulation. Ecosystem service value of Banan District increased from 1.169 billion RMB to 2.764 billion RMB from 2000 to 2020, and would continue to increase till 2030 by 3.019 billion RMB. The conversions of both farm land and forest land into construction land, and the conversion of farm land into forest land (especially the conversion of farm land into coniferous forest and coniferous and broad-leaved mixed forest) are main paths of the loss and gain of service values, respectively. From 2000 to 2030, ecosystem service value of Banan District will totally lose 0.058 billion RMB and will totally gain 1.909 billion RMB at the same time, which leads to a net increment of gain by 1.850 billion RMB. Changes of land use structure and the increment of the values of equivalent factors contribute 70.96% and 29.04% of the net gain values, respectively. The profit and loss of ecosystem service values in Banan District are closely linked to the topography. The values of ecosystem service in Banan District gradually form a development pattern of lower in the north and higher in the south from 2000 to 2030. The profit and loss of service values in Banan District have significantly spatial autocorrelation characteristics at both global and local scale, with low values concentrated in the northwestern part with low-altitude, while high values concentrated in the central-south and southeastern regions with high-altitude. The existing land use pattern of Banan District can take into account both economic development and eco-environmental protection needs. There is still a need to carry out ecological engineering continually and design the urban land boundary rationally, as well as strictly observe the red line of cultivated land to promote the coordinated development of urban and rural areas in the future.