Abstract:Land use change is an important cause of habitat fragmentation, loss, and degradation. The ecological network can protect essential habitats and promote the flow of material and energy between habitats, which is significant to regional land use planning and biodiversity conservation. Taking Ezhou City as the research area, three land use change scenarios were predicted based on the CLUE-S model. Using habitat quality as one of the criteria for selecting habitat patches, an ecological network was constructed based on the maximum migration distance of birds. The effect of land use change on bird habitat connectivity using the probability of connectivity (PC) and delta probability of connectivity (dPC). The results showed that:(1) the number of land use types and spatial structure differed in the three scenarios. Compared with ecological conservation, construction land increased by 11603.52 hm2, while forest, farmland, and water decreased by 5041.8 hm2, 2540.16 hm2 and 3385.8 hm2 in urban expansion. The main changing areas were new urban areas, scenic mountain areas, and water surrounding areas. (2) Habitat patches decreased to 235 and 216 in the present continuation and urban expansion scenario. Habitat patches increased to 367 in the ecological conservation scenario. The network structure was complete, but the spatial location changed. (3) The PC showed a trend of first increased, then decreased and increased again in 2004-2024. The PC of ecological conservation was higher than the present situation continuation and urban expansion, which benefited short-distance migratory birds. (4) The first level patches increased in the ecological conservation, the marginal and critical small patches were protected, and the second level patches increased in the urban expansion. The importance of some habitat patches increased in the present situation. The new development planning of Ezhou City should coordinate the relationship between urban development and ecological conservation. The priority should be given to protecting large and critical small habitat patches that are potential threats to land use change. It is necessary to focus on protecting the landscape connectivity of short-migratory birds.