“一带一路”沿线地区NO2浓度时空变化特征及其驱动因素
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中国科学院战略性先导科技专项课题(XDA20040400);浙江省"万人计划"青年拔尖人才;浙江省哲学社会科学规划"之江青年课题"(19ZJQN02YB)


Spatiotemporal variation and driving factors of NO2 concentrations in the Belt and Road region
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    摘要:

    探寻"一带一路"沿线国家在城镇化进程中的大气污染时空变化及其驱动机制,对于打造绿色"一带一路"、实现区域可持续发展具有重要意义。基于2005-2015年"一带一路"地区的二氧化氮(NO2)柱浓度数据,分析了沿线74个国家NO2浓度的时空变化特征,建立了广泛意义上的城镇化综合测度指标体系,结合空间计量模型从自然和社会经济维度揭示了"一带一路"地区NO2浓度的主要驱动因素。结果表明:(1)2005-2015年,"一带一路"地区NO2浓度年均值波动变化,并呈现高低纬度低、中纬度高的空间分布特征;(2)人口城镇化和土地城镇化水平不断提升,并呈现西南高、东北低的空间分布格局;(3)经济增长、汽车保有量增加和土地城镇化是导致"一带一路"地区NO2浓度上升的主要驱动因素,扩大森林覆盖率则可显著抑制NO2浓度增加。研究表明,转变经济发展方式,适度调控汽车保有量和城市建设用地增速,建立和完善"一带一路"沿线国家大气污染协同治理机制,是推动共建绿色丝绸之路的重要措施。

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    Urbanization is a complex system that has led to severe air pollution. There is a growing interest in exploring the relationship between urbanization and atmospheric pollutants at multiple scales. The impact of urbanization on particulate matter having a diameter <2.5 μm (PM2.5) has been investigated by researchers worldwide, while some attention has been paid to the impact of urbanization on nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations. A majority of the countries in the Belt and Road (B&R) region are currently in the stage of rapid urbanization and are suffering from NO2 pollution. However, the focus on the spatiotemporal variation and driving factors of NO2 concentrations in the B&R region is almost lacking. To fill this gap, in this study, we explored the spatiotemporal variation in the tropospheric NO2 vertical column density as a representative of the NO2 concentrations in the 74 countries of the B&R region, and further investigated the impacts of different dimensions of urbanization on the NO2 concentrations. The results indicated that the annual mean NO2 concentrations in the B&R region were fluctuating during 2005 and 2015; with low concentrations in high or low latitude regions, and high concentrations in middle latitude regions. The spatial dependence of NO2 was statistically significant in the B&R region. The NO2 concentrations in developed countries, especially in Western Europe, exhibited a significant downward trend. Distinct trends can be observed for the NO2 concentrations of developing countries: China has reduced its NO2 concentrations after reaching a peak in 2011; the NO2 concentrations have decreased slowly in Malaysia and Indonesia, while it has increased steadily in India, Russia, and certain Western Asian countries. Both population urbanization and land urbanization in the B&R region continued to increase, with high levels in the southwest and low levels in the northeast. Land urbanization had a much stronger influence on air quality than population urbanization. The gross domestic product (GDP), car ownership, and land urbanization had a significant positive effect on the NO2 concentrations, whereas the forest cover rate had a negative effect on the NO2 concentrations. Our study suggested that changing the modes of economic growth, limiting the increase in vehicle ownership and built-up land, and establishing a coordinated management system of air pollution control among the B&R nations were key measures for the construction of a green B&R region. Further, intensive urban land use and sustainable management of forest and urban green area were expected to remarkably support the achievement of air pollution control and climate change mitigation simultaneously. Moreover, adopting new clean technologies and higher environmental standards would be highly required. For instance, more funds should be invested for research on fuel savings, emission reduction technologies of fuel vehicles, and new energy vehicles. These findings could facilitate the understanding of the dynamics and driving forces of the NO2 concentrations, laying a basis for achieving a green transformation of regional and national economies in the pursuit of 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

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方恺,王婷婷,何坚坚,沈扬.“一带一路”沿线地区NO2浓度时空变化特征及其驱动因素.生态学报,2020,40(13):4241~4251

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