基于Maxent模型的双药芒不同时期潜在分布研究
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国家自然科学基金项目(31871693);湖南省重点领域研发计划(2019NK2011)


Maxent modeling for predicting the potentially geographical distribution of Miscanthus nudipes under different climate conditions
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    摘要:

    双药芒(Miscanthus nudipes)是一种适应寒冷和干旱环境的芒属植物,具备驯化成具有生态修复、观赏等多功能植物的潜力。在双药芒现有分布记录的基础上,采用Maxent模型构建其在末次间冰期、末次盛冰期、现代以及未来(2070年)的潜在分布格局,在评价环境因子对其分布模型影响的前提下,定量分析不同生态气候情景下双药芒适生区域的变化。结果表明:(1)温度变化方差在440-645,最冷月份最低温在-8.5-0℃,年温变化范围在22-30℃,5月降水量在70-115 mm,海拔范围在1630-3750 m,6月太阳辐射小于15800 kJ m-2 d-1时适宜双药芒的生长和分布。其中,温度变化方差是影响双药芒地理分布格局的关键性气候限制条件。(2)双药芒现代适生区面积为632184.45 km2,主要分布在四川省、云南省、西藏自治区、贵州省、陕西省、甘肃省、重庆市、湖北省和河南省。四川省中部地区、云南的北部和西藏的东部是分布中心。(3)从末次间冰期到未来2070年低排放情景下潜在适生面积将缩减到546745.02 km2,缩减面积为94867.23 km2,占当前生境的15.00%。(4)从末次间冰期至末次盛冰期,分布中心点向东南方向发生大幅度迁移,从末次盛冰期至未来,分布中心趋于稳定。总体来看未来双药芒分布中心有向冰期分布中心迁移的趋势。以上研究为研究芒属植物的起源及进化提供了参考。

    Abstract:

    Miscanthus nudipes is the species which is highly adaptable to extremely cold and drought environments, and has the potential of being domesticated to the species with highly ecological adaptability. Based on the current distribution of the M. nudipes, using the Maxent model to analyze the potential geographical distributions of the M. nudipes in the Last Interglacial Period, the Last Glacial Maximum Period, the Modern Period and in the future (in the year of 2070), respectively. Meanwhile, based on the different species distribution models, this study quantitatively analyzed the changes of suitable habitat areas of the M. nudipes under different climate conditions. The results show that 1) The temperature seasonality plays a core role, which affects the geographical distributions of the M. nudipes. Additionally, the temperature seasonality is 440-645, the lowest temperature of the coldest month is -8.5-0℃, the temperature annual range is 22-30℃, the precipitation in May is 70-115 mm, the altitude range is 1630-3750 m, and the solar radiation in June is less than 15,800 kJ m-2 d-1,which provide the best factors for the growth of the M. nudipes; 2)The total areas of the best suitable habitat of the species of M. nudipes is 632,184.45 km2, which include Sichuan, Yunnan, Guizhou, Shanxi, Gansu, Hubei, Henan, Chongqing and Tibet Autonomous Region in China. Moreover, the distribution center is the central Sichuan, the northern Yunnan, and the eastern Xizang, respectively; 3) there will be a significant decrease of suitable habitat area from 632,184.45 to 546,745.02 km2 during the period from the Last Interglacial period to the year of 2070, which will reduce 94,867.23 km2; 4) From the Last Interglacial period to the Last Glacial Maximum period, the distribution center moved forward to the southeast of China, and from the Last Glacial Maximum period to the future, the distribution center will tend to keep stable. In general, there will be a tendency of the distribution center of M. nudipes moving to the Last Glacial Maximum period distribution center in the future. In summary, the conclusion of this study provided a theoretical method and evidence on the analysis of the origin and genetical evolution of the M. nudipes in the following studies.

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廖剑锋,易自力,李世成,肖亮.基于Maxent模型的双药芒不同时期潜在分布研究.生态学报,2020,40(22):8297~8305

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