Abstract:Biodiversity and ecosystem service scenario simulations refer to the quantitative estimation of future biodiversity and ecosystem service change trajectory, which provides an important scientific basis for long-term and stable protection and restoration of ecosystems. This study compared the related prediction models of biodiversity, sorted out the core viewpoints of biodiversity and ecosystem service prediction scenarios, and discussed the approaches of ecosystem management decision support based on scenario simulation aiming to serve the biodiversity and ecosystem service prediction research in China. The results are as follows. The species distribution model needs more specifications to clear its applicability, ecosystem prediction model on the basis of the structural relationship requires join more specific ecological and socioeconomic processes, and ecosystem services assessment model needs to strengthen on describing the cascade characteristics of biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being. Great regional biodiversity change will be driven by global climate change depended on the large scale scenarios and land use is the core driving variable in the prediction of terrestrial ecosystem services. Three important research directions were identified as ecological regionalization and regional scale scenario simulation, ecological security pattern construction in landscape scale, and community adaptation based on social ecological network. We believe these findings will provide important theoretical and practical support for China's ecosystem conservation decision-making based on the scenario simulations.