Alsophila spinulosa sheds light on the speciation and phytogeographic flora, reconstruction of the paleoecological environment and geological changes. Based on 189 locations of A. spinulosa and 21 environmental variables, the influencing factors, spatial distribution and variation rules of potential distribution areas of A. spinulosa under the climatic conditions of the Last Interglacial (LIG), Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), Middle Holocene (Mid-Holocene), present and future (2070) are predicted by employing the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and ArcGIS software. The following conclusions have been drawn: 1) the environmental conditions of A. spinulosa with a survival probability larger than 0.5 are as follows: the monthly mean diurnal range is lower than 7.6℃; the minimum temperature of the coldest month is within 3-10℃; the temperature annual range is 21.5-27.5℃; the annual precipitation is 1200-2100 mm; the precipitation of the driest month is 16-46 mm; the precipitation seasonality (coefficient of variation) is 57-76; the altitude is 160-800 m; and the slope is 12-28°. During the period from the LIG to LGM, the potential distribution areas of A.spinulosa are mainly affected by the minimum temperature of the coldest month (above -3℃) and the precipitation of the driest month (above 10 mm). During the period from the Mid-Holocene to 2070, it is also affected by precipitation seasonality (greater than 50). 2) The potential distribution areas of A. spinulosa are the tropics and subtropics located in the south of 32°20'N in China. From the LIG to LGM, the center of the potential distribution areas of A.spinulosa moved from the central Guangdong to the northern Guangxi with the farthest distance, then, moved from the northern Guangxi to the western Hunan during the LGM to 2070. From the LIG to 2070, the average elevation of the grade II (the survival probability ranges from 0.1-0.3) and III (0.3-0.5) potential distribution areas increased, it reaches the maximum in present, and then will decrease. The average elevation of the grade IV (0.5-0.7) and V (> 0.7) potential distribution areas shows various trends of increase, decrease, re-increase and re-decrease. 3) From the LIG to 2070, the potential distribution areas, grade III, IV and V potential distribution areas all increased, they reach the maximum in present, and then will decrease. Grade II potential distribution areas increased from the LIG to Mid-Holocene, decreased from the Mid-Holocene to present, and then will increase. The potential distribution areas of different grades reach the maximum at the altitude about 300-400 m. About 77%-98% of the grade II, III, IV and V potential distribution areas are below 1200 m, and about 81%-97% of the grade IV and V potential distribution areas are below 800 m. The results of this study can provide references for the protection of A. spinulosa in response to climate warming, introduction and cultivation, and site selection of protected areas.