Abstract:Pseudolarix amabilis, which distributes narrowly in China, is a rare and endangered relic plant listed in National Key Protected Wild Plants Grade II list. It is of great significance to the artificial protection and cultivation of P. amabilis to predict the potential suitable habitat of P. amabilis in China using niche models. In this paper, 19 climate factors and 3 topographic factors derived from 44 specimen distribution records from herbaria of China and the WorldClim webset were applied to four Niche models, i.e. GARP, Bioclim, Domain, and Maxent to predict the areas of potential distribution of P. amabilis. The results of different models were analyzed and compared using two statistical criteria: the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Kappa value. The predictions of the four models were basically identical, showing that the naional areas for potential distribution of P. amabilis were predominantly in southern Jiangsu, southern Anhui, southern Hubei, southern Jiangxi, and northwestern Zhejiang, with the core range situating from 24.43°N to 33.35°N and 106.41°E to 123.42°E. The AUC average values of the four models were all above 0.90 and the Kappa average values were above 0.75, justifying their applications for predicting the potential areas of P. amabilis. Furthermore, our study showed that the annual mean temperature was the key environmental factor affecting the distribution of P. amabilis. It may be the decisive factor of the current distribution pattern of P. amabilis and the basis of the migration direction of P. amabilis in the future. The results in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and 2070 showed that the distribution pattern changed from "South expanding and North shrinking" to "South shrinking and North expanding" due to climate change, and the distribution area would be sharply reduced in the future. We suggested that the nature reserves or seed orchards of P. amabilis should be established in the most suitable distribution areas (the Tonggu County of Jiangxi Province, the Zhangjiajie County and the Hengyang City of Hunan Province). Besides, the northward migration of P. amabilis should be assisted by artificial introduction in the most suitable distribution areas (such as northern Anhui Province, southern Henan Province, southeastern Hubei Province, etc.) under the future climate conditions.