Populus euphratica is a forest genetic resource that is urgently needed to be protected in arid and semi-arid regions of the world. Predicting the potential geographical distribution of Populus euphratica in China under the future climate change scenario will provide a scientific basis for the protection and management of Populus euphratica population resources. It also provides valuable theoretical guidance for the rational planting and allocation of Populus euphratica in the process of oasis restoration. Based on 93 effective distribution records and 10 environmental factor variables of Populus euphratica in China, the potential geographical distribution of Populus euphratica was predicted by Maxent model and ArcGIS software. Combined with the contribution rate of environmental factor variables and the important value of replacement, the knife cutting method was used to test and evaluate the important factors restricting the modern potential geographical distribution of Populus euphratica, and the response curve was used to determine the suitable range of environmental factor variables. The quantitative determination of potential geographical distribution and area of Populus euphratica threatened in the future. The results show that (1) the prediction accuracy of the Maxent model is extremely high, and the work curve area (AUC value) of the subject is 0.932. The total suitable area of the modern potentially geographical distribution of Populus euphratica is 289.94×10⁴km², mainly located in the central and western regions of Inner Mongolia (Ejina Banner and Alashan Region), most of Xinjiang, northern and northwestern Gansu, central and western Qinghai, and northern Ningxia. (2) The main environmental factor variables affecting the potential geographical distribution of Populus euphratica are temperature factor variable (annual average temperature and coldest monthly lowest temperature) and precipitation. The factor variables (the wettest monthly precipitation and the driest season precipitation) and the wettest monthly precipitation is the key factor affecting the potential geographical distribution of Populus euphratica. (3) Under the next four climate change scenarios, the area of potential geographical distribution of different grades of Populus euphratica will be smaller than that of modern potential geographical distribution, and on the whole, the potential geographical distribution of Populus euphratica tends to migrate to the high altitude area.