Abstract:Based on 2759 emission reduction units of 89 enterprises in three carbon emission intensive industries including steel, thermal power and chemical industry in China's carbon trading pilots, this paper constructs an enterprise emission-reduction path selection model to simulate and analyze the emission reduction paths and industrial differences of enterprises facing forest carbon sequestration supply under the influence of different emission reduction policies. The results show that:(1) the cost of purchasing forest carbon sequestration, technology emission reduction and purchasing quota are 210 yuan/ton, 319 yuan/ton and 158 yuan/ton, respectively. Because of the different marginal emission reduction cost, there are obvious differences in the selection of emission reduction path among enterprises in different industries affected by the emission reduction policy. (2) In order to encourage enterprises to purchase forest carbon sequestration to offset their carbon emissions, different policies should be adopted for enterprises in different industries. Considering the subsidy input and incentive effect comprehensively, government should implement 102 yuan/ton technology emission reduction subsidies for thermal power enterprises, 83 yuan/ton technology emission reduction subsidies and 83 yuan/ton forest carbon sequestration subsidies respectively for chemical enterprises, as well as 168 yuan/ton carbon sequestration subsidies for steel enterprises. (3) Under the influence of the above policies according to different industries, about 50% of emission reduction units from each industry will choose to purchase forest carbon sequestrations by comparing the cost of different emission reduction paths. Combined with the national strategic goal of coping with climate change and the development law of various industries, the results of this paper provide a scientific basis for actively guiding enterprises to save energy and reduce emissions, fully tapping the market potential of forest carbon sequestration, and reducing the cost pressure of emission reduction for the enterprises.