Abstract:Ormosia hosiei Hemsl. et Wils. is endemic to China with high economic, landscape, and medicinal value. Due to the precious wood of this species, and as a result of serious logging, its population and distribution range are decreasing constantly. Thus, it is listed as a Near-Threatened species in the IUCN Red List of Endangered Species. Climate change will have a serious impact on the distribution of such species. Understanding the impact of climate change on species distribution will help develop species conservation strategies, especially for the future protection of endangered species. Based on geographical distribution data of O. hosiei in China, nine variable factors were selected after correlation analysis. The maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was used to simulate the potential distribution in four scenarios, the Last Glacial Maximum, the Mid Holocene, the current and the future, and found the dominant environmental factors respectively. In addition, the spatial patterns under different climate changes have been modeled through space analysis in the MaxEnt. The results showed that the average AUC values in each period exceeded 0.9, which meant the MaxEnt model was of high predictive ability. Differences in the annual precipitation, temperature seasonality, and monthly mean temperature were predicted to be three dominant factors by the Jackknife method, and the contribution of these three factors reached 91.8%. Then, the simulation results were imported into ArcGIS to obtain the dynamics of the O. hosiei distribution pattern under different scenarios. The results showed that, since the Last Glacial Maximum, the potential distribution of O. hosiei contracted and the species migrated to the northward. With growing global warming, the potential distribution of O. hosiei under the four climate scenarios would also decrease; especially the scenario with the highest greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 8.5), the rate of loss peaked at 45.8%. Large suitable areas in Chongqing, Jiangxi, and south-central Guangdong and Guangxi provinces may be lost,while the expanding areas would only increase 1%-2% on the edge of the suitable area. In this research, it was found the distribution of O. hosiei was greatly effected by the climate change, which would provide an important reference for the future conservation and cultivation of O. hosiei.