Abstract:Climate change and climate-induced fire effects on boreal forests are expected to continue and intensify in the future. Therefore, the Natural Forest Conservation Policy, tending, thinning, and replanting methods were implemented in 2000 and 2014, to balance ecological restoration and deal with future climate warming. These policies and tending, thinning methods have successfully improved the boreal forests over the last eight years, however, the long-term effects of tending thinning methods on boreal major species is still poorly understood. The sustainability of these methods also needs to be evaluated under future possible climates. Simultaneously, understanding and quantifying the effects of various silvicultural strategies on future boreal forests is increasing important for forest ecosystem management. The objective of this study was to investigate effects of climate change, climate-induced fire, and silvicultural strategies on forest major species in a boreal forest landscape in Northeast China. To do this, we used a forest landscape model (LANDIS PRO) to predict tree density and biomass over long time periods (up to 200 years). The results suggested that 1) the initialized landscape, the short-term and long-term simulated results were consistent with the forest inventory data at landscape scales, and the simulated fire was comparable to the field data (measured stand density). 2) Compared to the current climate condition, climate warming and climate-induced fire have altered species compositions, age cohorts, and aboveground biomasses. Under the B1 climate scenario, the major forest composition in the study area will maintain dynamic balance (dominated coniferous trees), while converting to broadleaf forests under the A2 climate scenario. 3) Compared to the no harvesting scenario, the predicted stand density and aboveground biomass of larch species under the current climate and tending thinning scenarios were reduced by (165±94.9) trees/hm2 and (8.5±5.1) Mg/hm2, respectively, and the stand density and biomass of pine, birch, and spruce increased by 3.3-753.4 trees/hm2 and 0.2-4.0 Mg/hm2, respectively. Under both B1 and A2 climate scenarios, the tending thinning scenario altered the stand density significantly, and reduced the mean aboveground biomass at landscape scale, and thus it was not sustainable. 4) Under the B1 climate scenario, 10% and 20% intensities of planting were suggested, and these planting strategies could be implemented in the boreal forests to increase biomass over the long-term period and A2 climate scenario. Results from this study provide insight into effective future forest management practices and implications for improving boreal forest sustainability.