Abstract:Rapid climate change has greatly contributed to the species distribution of Disanthus. Understanding the influence of climate change on the distribution of endangered species is essential for conservation biology. Disanthus Maxim., a genus that includes one species and one variety, is endemic to East Asia. It is the most basal and the oldest genus in Hamamelidaceae, and has a discontinuous distribution across China and Japan. This genus is significant for the study of the phylogeny and the biogeography of East Asia. In this paper, nineteen populations of Disanthus Maxim. were selected to study the potential distribution of this genus during current, Last Glacial Maximum, and future periods, for which the representative concentration pathways of greenhouse gases were 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively. A high area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC=0.9999±0.0001) indicated that the prediction accuracy of the MaxEnt model was very high. The precipitation of the wettest month and precipitation of the driest month were the dominant factors affecting the distribution of this genus. Quantitative analysis performed in ArcToolbox were used to compare the distribution dynamic of the genus. An analysis based on the habitat stability of the population (Nstab), the area ratio of the distribution area between Current and other periods (Na), and the degree of expansion or contraction (Ne) showed that Disanthus Maxim. underwent contraction coupled with evolution. The suitable distribution area of Disanthus Maxim. will likely alter depending on increases in greenhouse gas emissions in the future. The potential contractions in the distribution of Disanthus Maxim. range from thirty to sixty five percent. It is likely that the Disanthus Maxim. population found in the Wuyishan Mountains would be lost under RCP 8.5, in particular. Predicting the potential distribution areas of this genus in different periods would be helpful to improve our understanding of how the genus responds to climate change and the restriction mechanisms of environmental variables on the potential distribution of the species. This study could provide a theoretical reference point for the establishment of conservation measures for Disanthus Maxim. and help the study of the formation and evolution of the flora of East Asia.