Salix tetrasperma Roxb. is one of the few species of the genus Salix L. and family Salicaceae with a distribution area extending to the tropical zone. This species has a high landscaping and ecological value, and is distributed widely in south China and southeast Asia, but its habitat is highly fragmented. A prediction of the impact of climate change on the distribution of this species will facilitate the rational utilization of germplasm resources of S. tetrasperma, as well as research into the biodiversity of Salix. Based on comprehensive and accurate distribution records and high-resolution environmental data, we modeled the potential range of S. tetrasperma during the Last Inter Glacial (LIG), Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), current, and future (2050, 2070) periods. We evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping the species' distribution, and quantificationally identified regions of high risk under different climate scenarios. The niche models showed that S. tetrasperma has suitable habitat of approximately 234.65×10⁴ km² in the tropical habitats of east Asia, south Asia, and southeast Asia. Air temperature annual range and annual precipitation were identified as the critical factors shaping habitat availability for S. tetrasperma. During the LGM, the distribution center of S. tetrasperma from the glacial epoch to future presented a tendency for migration back and forth between the north and south. The distribution area of S. tetrasperma expanded to the northwest and started to occur in the tropical zone, which suggested it began to adapt to a tropical climate. Populations of S. tetrasperma retreated into the valley of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau and plains region of Indonesia after the mid-Holocene period. The habitat of S. tetrasperma might be more fragmented in 2050 and 2070 owing to global warming. We therefore suggest monitoring the peripheral population in eastern and central Myanmar.