Abstract:To evaluate how climate change may influence species distribution, we simulated the potential geographical distribution of Cymbidium goeringii and C. faberi under current and 2070 climate conditions based on 157 species presence data sets and 19 bioclimatic variables using MaxEnt software. The climate change model showed increases in the annual mean temperature, minimum temperature of the coldest month, and mean temperature of the coldest quarter. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values for these factors varied from 0.9 to 1.0, which indicated that the prediction had high reliability. Four bioclimatic factors, minimum temperature of the coldest month, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, annual precipitation, and precipitation of the driest month, were the main bioclimatic factors affecting the geographical distributions of C. goeringii and C. faberi. With global warming, the area of suitable habitat for C. goeringii will shrink, whereas the area for C. faberi will expand and is projected to migrate northward. Our results provide scientific references for ecological risk assessment and introduction of C. goeringii and C. faberi.