中国海洋资源环境经济系统承载力及协调性的时空演变
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辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心,辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心,辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院

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教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目(16JJD790021);国家社科基金重大项目(14ZDB130)


Spatio-temporal law and coordinated development of the carrying capacity of marine environmental resource and economic system in China
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Center for Studies of Marine Economy and Sustainable Development,Liaoning Normal University,Center for Studies of Marine Economy and Sustainable Development,Liaoning Normal University,

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    摘要:

    中国海洋复合系统承载力研究对海洋标准化发展具有重要意义。引入环境EKC机理,通过可变模糊识别算法,结合相关研究构建承载力指标体系和评价体系对中国海洋资源环境经济2006-2014年承载力情况进行评价分析;利用三元协调发展模型对复合系统承载力进行协调发展测度;最后通过灰色关联模型测度承载力驱动因素以期为中国海洋复合系统可持续发展提供参考依据。研究结果表明:(1)中国海洋复合系统承载力时序变化良好;空间上天津、上海、海南承载力较高,呈南北中"三足鼎立"格局,河北、广西承载力较低;(2)承载力协调发展状况也呈良性发展,但区域间差异较大,海南、山东协调性较高,海南、上海、天津协调发展度较高,其余大部分地区均有待提高。(3)海洋经济规模与产业结构、环境治理、资源丰富度分别影响着海洋经济、资源、环境承载力。

    Abstract:

    The study of the carrying capacity of China's marine composite system is of great significance to the development of marine standardization. Based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, the use of variable fuzzy identification algorithms, combined with relevant research to construct a carrying capacity index and evaluation system to evaluate the carrying capacity of China's marine environmental resource and economic system from 2006 to 2014. The coordinated development model measures the coordinated development of the carrying capacity of the composite system. Finally, we used gray relational analysis to measure the factors influencing the carrying capacity in order to provide a reference for the sustainable development of the marine composite system in China. The results of the study indicate that: (1) the time series of China's marine composite system's carrying capacity shows an increasing trend; the carrying capacities of Tianjin, Shanghai, and Hainan, the pattern of the "three pillars" in the north and south, are higher in space than other locations, but the carrying capacities of Hebei and Guangxi are relatively low; (2) the coordinated development of the carrying capacity also showed positive development, but the differences among regions were large, with higher coordinations in Hainan, Shandong, Shanghai and Tianjin than other locations.The development of most other regions needs to be improved. (3) The scale of the marine economy and industrial structure, environmental governance, and richness of resources affect the changes in carrying capacity of the marine economy, environment, and resources.

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盖美,钟利达,柯丽娜.中国海洋资源环境经济系统承载力及协调性的时空演变.生态学报,2018,38(22):7921~7932

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