Abstract:Ecosystem services value (ESV) research is an important way to improve land use patterns and to promote the protection and restoration of regional ecosystems. This study choose the fragile ecological environment of the Ugan-Kuqa River delta oasis as a study area, using remote sensing images in 1994 and 2016 as the basic data to assess the value of ecosystem services. To further investigate dynamic change characteristics of regional ecosystem service values, the grid, sensitivity analysis, spatial autocorrelation, and spatial statistical methods were applied. The results revealed that:(1) 1994-2016 Ugan-Kuqa River delta oasis land use changed, and land cover changed was more significant. Cultivated land and construction land showed an increasing trend, whereas grassland and unused land showed a declining trend. Cultivated land and grassland changed most rapidly. (2) From 1994 to 2016, the total value of ecosystem services in the Ugan-Kuqa River delta oasis decreased from 4895.67×106 yuan to 3864.78×106 yuan, being reduced by 1030.89×106 yuan, an annual reduction of 0.96%; in spaces where the ecological service value added area in the impairment area were in a situation of encirclement. Areas of high ecosystem service value were shrinking. At the same time, the value of ecosystem individual services presented an increasing and decreasing trend. Four single service values, such as waste treatment, water conservation, biodiversity protection, and recreational culture, there was a downward trend. However, food production, climate regulation, gas regulation and raw material, soil formation, and protection, and an additional five individual service values showed an upward trend. (3) The sensitivity analysis revealed that the sensitivity index of ecosystem service value coefficient (CS) of all land use types were less than 1, indicating that the ecological value coefficient (VC) had little influence on the changes of ecosystem service values, the model can reasonably evaluate the fluctuation of regional ecosystem service values. (4) The ecosystem service value of the study area showed obvious spatial autocorrelation and spatial clustering, ecological service value high accumulation areas were mainly distributed in the Ugan-Kuqa River upstream, in the "Kezier reservoir" around and north shore of the Tarim River and showed a decreasing trend. Protection of the spatial stability of the high value area must be considered; the low accumulation area mainly concentrated in the southern part of the oasis was close to the edge of the Taklimakan Desert and near the Tianshan Mountain central area and desert area of the lower reaches of the Kuqa River. The spatial distribution pattern of this kind of area is basically stable. (5) Affected by climate change and human activities, the grassland and water area was greatly reduced and construction land and cultivated land was increased, resulting in the land with higher ecological service value coefficient being continuously reduced, which causes the ecological service value of the study area tend to weaken.