我国极端干旱天气变化趋势及其对城市水资源压力的影响
作者:
作者单位:

中国科学院生态环境研究中心城市与区域生态国家重点实验室,中国科学院生态环境研究中心城市与区域生态国家重点实验室,北京大学,中国科学院生态环境研究中心城市与区域生态国家重点实验室,中国科学院生态环境研究中心城市与区域生态国家重点实验室,中国科学院生态环境研究中心城市与区域生态国家重点实验室

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0502102);国家应对气候变化专项经费项目(201624)


Drought trends and their impacts of pressures of urban water resources in China of precipitations
Author:
Affiliation:

State Key Laboratory of uUrban and rRegional eEcology,Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,State Key Laboratory of uUrban and rRegional eEcology,Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,,,,State Key Laboratory of uUrban and rRegional eEcology,Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    随着全球气候变化和水循环的改变,降水不均和持续干旱等极端天气事件的频度和强度增加,对水资源,尤其是人口和社会经济密度高的城市的水资源带来很大的影响和压力。为了探究我国干旱天气的变化趋势、区域特征、及其对城市水资源压力的影响,采用全国917个气象站点1951-2014年的逐日降水量数据集,分析了我国水资源及干旱的变化趋势和空间分布特征,并以我国289个主要地级市为研究对象,构建了气候变化情境下的城市基于区域降水禀赋的水资源压力评估方法,预测并展望了不同时段和不同代表性浓度路径(RCPs)情景下的未来城市水资源压力的情况。结果显示,我国极端干旱情况整体是随着全球气候变化增加的,年最长连续无降水天数变化速度的平均值为2.3d/100a,但是具有区域性,具体表现为南部地区干旱减缓而北部地区干旱严重。我国城市水资源压力受水资源禀赋的影响,呈现北方高而南方低的分布,除此之外水资源消耗大的大城市资源压力也比较大。随着气候变化,近期我国整体城市水资源压力相对现阶段增加了2%左右,具体水资源压力上升的城市有170个,水资源压力减少的城市有110个,剩下的9个城市水资源压力受气候变化的影响比较小。在低应对的RCP8.5情景下的城市水资源压力远远高于在RCP2.6情景,这说明减缓气候变化工作对降低我国城市水资源压力有积极作用;城市水资源压力的变化并不是均匀的,呈现南部减少而北部增加的变化趋势,我国华北地区城市的水资源压力最大,随着气候的变化,该地区的水资源压力也在随着时间不断增加,需要政府积极行动,提出有针对性和前瞻性的水资源规划方案,并依据方案采取措施,以应对气候变化造成的城市干旱增加。

    Abstract:

    Regional variability of precipitation and droughts has been increasing as global climate change has progressed, which has aggravated regional shortages of water resources, particularly in cities because of their high population density and human activities. To investigate the water resources of 289 primary local cities in China and the influence of climate change, we scaled changes in drought occurrences based on precipitation data of 917 meteorological stations during 1951-2014, and constructed a method to evaluate pressures on urban water resources by regional precipitation, and we also forecast the pressures influenced by climate change in short or longer terms of different RCPs. The results show that because of global climate change, drought conditions are mainly increasing in prevalence in China, longest annual continuous no precipitation days are increasing by 2.3days/100a. However, these increases are not identical everywhere. In some areas of southern China, drought conditions have even improved, although conditions have become more severe in western and northern China. Pressures on water resources are greater in northern cities than in the south, because precipitation declines from the coast inland. Pressures on water resources are greater in metropolises than in other places because of the great quantities of water consumed by urban inhabitants and active economic activities. These pressures will increase about 2% after 20 years later relatively to present situations of climate change, and concretely there are 170 local cities in China whose pressures are greater while 110 cities are decreasing and only 9 cities which are insensitive of climate change of precipitations. Pressures are much heavier under RCP8.5 than under RCP2.6 because RCP8.5 represents much faster climate change. Therefore, mitigation of climate change is beneficial to sustaining the water supplies of cities in China. Water resources in North China are projected to decline in the future with global climate change because of reduced precipitation and high consumption. Governments should focus on cities in such areas to adopt prospective policies and formulate plans and implements to ensure that the water supply does not limit economic development.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

陆咏晴,严岩,丁丁,赵春黎,宋扬,赵景柱.我国极端干旱天气变化趋势及其对城市水资源压力的影响.生态学报,2018,38(4):1470~1477

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数: