不同水污染净化情景下北京社会经济部门及要素变化:基于ES-CGE模型的分析
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中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京大学城市与环境学院,天津工业大学管理学院,中国地质大学(北京)土地科学技术学院,北京大学城市与环境学院

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国家社会科学基金面上项目(16BGL204)


Socio-economic changes in Beijing under different water pollution purification scenarios: an analysis based on a water pollution purification ecosystem service-computable general equilibrium (ES-CGE) model
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College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University,College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University,School of Management, Tianjin Polytechnic University,School of Land Science and Technology, China University of Geosciences, Beijing,College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University

Fund Project:

The National Natural Science Foundation of China (General Program, Key Program, Major Research Plan)

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    摘要:

    水污染问题是北京城市发展的重要阻碍,探寻水污染净化服务对城市经济系统的影响,对北京产业结构调整具有重要意义。在传统可计算一般均衡模型(Computable General Equilibrium,CGE)的基础上,将水污染净化服务引入CGE模型,构建了水污染净化服务-可计算一般均衡模型(Water Pollution Purification Ecosystem Service-Computable General Equilibrium,ES-CGE),从供给与需求两个方面模拟了不同水污染净化情境下北京市社会经济部门及要素变化。研究结果表明:当水污染净化服务的供给和需求变化时,经济系统内各部门的产出都会相应做出调整,这反映了生态系统和经济系统之间以及经济系统内部的关联性。与提高污水管理水平相比,北京限制污水排放效果更为显著,居民福利增加也更为明显。现阶段,北京市城市功能疏解中应首先疏解石油、天然气开采、电力、热力和燃料生产和供应业、纺织服装鞋帽皮革羽绒及其制品业、造纸印刷及文教体育用品制造业等部门。北京市可在20%的增税幅度内,适度提高石油、天然气开采、电力、热力燃料生产和供应业生产税,联动造纸、纺织等行业逐步向外疏导,提高居民福利,同时在增税和补贴过程中,应注重关护农村居民利益,防止拉大城乡福利差距。

    Abstract:

    Water is the survival and irreplaceable natural resources and strategic economic resources.. Beijing is a serious resource-based water shortage city. The rapid economic development, sustained population growth caused the continuous deterioration in Beijing. In 2010, only 41.40% of river water system meet the Class Ⅲ water quality standards in Beijing. Water pollution is an important obstacle to the development of Beijing. Some industries with high energy consumption, high water consumption, high pollution, exacerbated the contradiction between population and the environment. Therefore, it is critical to explore the impact of a water pollution purification service on the urban socio-economic system to develop policies to scientifically adjust the socio-economic structure. This study introduced the water pollution purification service into the traditional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, and built a Water Pollution Purification Ecosystem Service-Computable General Equilibrium (ES-CGE). Using this ES-CGE framework, we simulated the socio-economic changes in Beijing under different water pollution purification supply and demand scenarios. The results show that:when the supply and demand of water pollution purification services change, the output of the various sectors in the economic system will be adjusted accordingly, which reflects the inherent linkages between the ecosystem and the economic system, as well as components within the economic system. We found that limiting the discharge of sewage is preferable to improve the level of sewage management and enhance the household's welfare. Our results suggest that the highly polluted and water-intensive sectors should be prioritized in the transfer of non-core functions to Hebei Province, including oil, natural gas extraction, electricity, heat and fuel production, textile, apparel shoes, leather, feathers, paper printing, cultural and educational sporting goods manufacturing. Beijing can raise production tax, which is currently capped at 20%, for natural gas extraction, electricity, thermal fuel production, and supply industry sectors, and then push sectors, such as paper, textile, and other industries, gradually outwards. Compared with rural residents, urban residents are more sensitive to changes in the water pollution purification service; for example, the application of 5% ecological tax subsidies for water pollution purification service, will increase the welfare of urban residents by 2054.907×104 Yuan, and that of rural residents by 1820.143×104 Yuan. Lastly, we caution that policymakers should incorporate the interests of rural residents, in order to prevent the gap between urban and rural welfare widening. The ES-CGE model not only inherits the general equilibrium theory of the CGE model, but also considers the interrelationship between the environment and economic systems, and is suitable for the research of environmental policy analysis and comprehensive evaluation of environmental economic impacts. However, compared to other forms of capital, the human understanding of the value of ecosystem services is extremely limited. In the future, we should strengthen the use of measured data and calibrate alternative parameters in the procedure of parameters determination. Moreover, we should use a variety of integrated ways to quantify various types of ecosystem services.

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高阳,王晓玥,张佰林,冯喆,李双成.不同水污染净化情景下北京社会经济部门及要素变化:基于ES-CGE模型的分析.生态学报,2018,38(5):1668~1678

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